Friday, 11/09/2026 at 20:00
Full timeCherno More Varna 2:2 Lokomotiv Sofia
Cherno More Varna were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Lokomotiv Sofia's attack: 1.66 xG against 1.11 projected (+0.55). Cherno More Varna produced 1.71 xG against 1.36 projected (+0.35).
The model against the result
- Cherno More Varna
- 40%
- Draw
- 32% What happened
- Lokomotiv Sofia
- 28%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Lokomotiv Sofia produced 0.55 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 14
- 10
- On target
- 4
- 3
- Inside the box
- 8
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.17
Recent form
0.93 xG created 1.40 xGA
- D 0.55 created, 0.95 conceded against Botev Vratsa
- L 1.94 created, 1.60 conceded against FK Spartak Varna
- L 0.25 created, 2.29 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
- L 0.68 created, 1.50 conceded against Ludogorets
- L 1.27 created, 1.53 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
- L 0.88 created, 0.51 conceded against Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.11 xG created 2.11 xGA
- L 0.53 created, 2.43 conceded against Levski Sofia
- D 0.91 created, 0.60 conceded against Slavia Sofia
- L 1.64 created, 2.54 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
- L 0.71 created, 0.91 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
- D 2.14 created, 2.57 conceded against FK Dunav Ruse
- L 0.75 created, 3.62 conceded against Ludogorets
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged3 won3 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.60 | +14.1% | Won |
| Cherno More Varna at most 1 goal | 1.80 | +7.5% | Lost |
| Lokomotiv Sofia to win | 3.75 | +4.9% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.90 | +3.0% | Lost |
| Lokomotiv Sofia to score | 1.44 | +1.4% | Won |
| Lokomotiv Sofia 2+ goals | 3.25 | +0.1% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherno More Varna | 40.3% | 49.2% | −8.8 pp | 2.48 |
| Draw | 31.7% | 25.9% | +5.7 pp | 3.16 |
| Lokomotiv Sofia | 28.0% | 24.9% | +3.1 pp | 3.58 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherno More Varna to score | 77.0% | 78.3% | −1.3 pp | 1.30 |
| Cherno More Varna not to score | 23.0% | 21.7% | +1.3 pp | 4.35 |
| Lokomotiv Sofia to score | 70.2% | 64.5% | +5.7 pp | 1.42 |
| Lokomotiv Sofia not to score | 29.8% | 35.5% | −5.7 pp | 3.35 |
| Both teams to score | 55.9% | 53.7% | +2.3 pp | 1.79 |
| Both teams not to score | 44.1% | 46.3% | −2.3 pp | 2.27 |
| Cherno More Varna 2+ goals | 40.3% | 48.5% | −8.3 pp | 2.48 |
| Cherno More Varna at most 1 goal | 59.7% | 51.5% | +8.3 pp | 1.67 |
| Lokomotiv Sofia 2+ goals | 30.8% | 29.1% | +1.7 pp | 3.25 |
| Lokomotiv Sofia at most 1 goal | 69.2% | 70.9% | −1.7 pp | 1.45 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.0% | 73.1% | +1.9 pp | 1.33 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25.0% | 26.9% | −1.9 pp | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.8% | 50.0% | −4.2 pp | 2.18 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.2% | 50.0% | +4.2 pp | 1.84 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Cherno More Varna sample
- 20 matches
- Lokomotiv Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.