Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 17:00
19d 11h to kick-offCSKA Sofia – Ludogorets
Model updated 5 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- CSKA Sofia
- 36%
- Draw
- 31%
- Ludogorets
- 33%
| CSKA Sofia | Draw | Ludogorets | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.77 | 3.21 | 3.06 |
- Total goals
- 2.58
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
36% CSKA Sofia to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 3rd
- CSKA Sofia attack v Ludogorets defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 1st
- CSKA Sofia defence v Ludogorets attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.42 vs +1.39
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.33 – 1.26
- CSKA Sofia v Ludogorets
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | CSKA Sofia | Ludogorets |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 2.24 · 2nd | (better) 2.42 · 1st |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.86 · 2nd | 1.02 · 4th |
| xGD / match | +1.38 · 2nd | (better) +1.39 · 1st |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.26 · 1st | 2.19 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.42 | +1.40 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- CSKA Sofia clean sheet
- 25%
- CSKA Sofia 2+ goals
- 39%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 41%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.9%
- 2:1
- 9.7%
- 1:2
- 9.2%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- CSKA Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- Ludogorets sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · CSKA Sofia
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Ludogorets
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.