FK Spartak Varna 1:1 CSKA Sofia: xG & match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 18:00

Full time

Match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

FK Spartak Varna Home 0.79 xG

CSKA Sofia Away 3.50 xG

11 CSKA Sofia had the better chances, but it finished level

CSKA Sofia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 57%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was CSKA Sofia's attack: 3.50 xG against 1.74 projected (+1.76).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FK Spartak Varna: 16%
Draw: 27% What happened
CSKA Sofia: 57%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FK Spartak Varna 0.87 0.79 -0.08

CSKA Sofia 1.74 3.50 +1.76

CSKA Sofia produced 1.76 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FK Spartak Varna CSKA Sofia

Shots: 7; 27
On target: 3; 6
Inside the box: 2; 13
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.13

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FK Spartak Varna

1.21 xG created 1.76 xGA

W 3.68 created, 0.27 conceded against PFK Montana 1921
D 0.79 created, 2.80 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
W 1.60 created, 1.94 conceded against Cherno More Varna
W 0.44 created, 0.80 conceded against Lokomotiv Plovdiv
L 0.73 created, 1.04 conceded against FK Septemvri Sofia
L 0.00 created, 3.70 conceded against Levski Sofia

CSKA Sofia

1.24 xG created 1.18 xGA

W 1.73 created, 0.88 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
D 0.58 created, 1.49 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
L 0.27 created, 1.59 conceded against Levski Sofia
D 1.53 created, 0.37 conceded against Slavia Sofia
W 1.54 created, 2.39 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
W 1.81 created, 0.34 conceded against FK Dunav Ruse

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FK Spartak Varna: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged2 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FK Spartak Varna against CSKA Sofia before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	4.00	+8.2%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.00	+1.0%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FK Spartak Varna	15.5%	16.2%	−0.6 pp	6.43
Draw	27.0%	23.2%	+3.8 pp	3.70
CSKA Sofia	57.4%	60.6%	−3.2 pp	1.74

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	53.1%	50.0%	+3.1 pp	1.88
Both teams not to score	46.9%	50.0%	−3.1 pp	2.13
Over 1.5 goals	77.4%	75.0%	+2.4 pp	1.29
Under 1.5 goals	22.6%	25.0%	−2.4 pp	4.42
Over 2.5 goals	49.5%	52.6%	−3.1 pp	2.02
Under 2.5 goals	50.5%	47.4%	+3.1 pp	1.98

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FK Spartak Varna sample: 20 matches
CSKA Sofia sample: 20 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.