Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 18:00
Full timeFK Spartak Varna 1:1 Ludogorets
Ludogorets were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 64%. It finished 1–1.
The model against the result
- FK Spartak Varna
- 12%
- Draw
- 23% What happened
- Ludogorets
- 64%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.21 xG created 1.76 xGA
- W 3.68 created, 0.27 conceded against PFK Montana 1921
- D 0.79 created, 2.80 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
- W 1.60 created, 1.94 conceded against Cherno More Varna
- W 0.44 created, 0.80 conceded against Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- L 0.73 created, 1.04 conceded against FK Septemvri Sofia
- L 0.00 created, 3.70 conceded against Levski Sofia
1.89 xG created 1.41 xGA
- L 0.46 created, 3.06 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
- W 0.96 created, 1.91 conceded against Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- W 2.12 created, 0.81 conceded against FK Dunav Ruse
- W 3.72 created, 1.17 conceded against Botev Vratsa
- W 1.50 created, 0.68 conceded against Cherno More Varna
- W 2.58 created, 0.81 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | +2.4% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | +1.6% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Spartak Varna | 12.3% | 17.0% | −4.7 pp | 8.13 |
| Draw | 23.5% | 22.8% | +0.7 pp | 4.26 |
| Ludogorets | 64.2% | 60.2% | +4.0 pp | 1.56 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 55.0% | 50.0% | +5.0 pp | 1.82 |
| Both teams not to score | 45.0% | 50.0% | −5.0 pp | 2.22 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.9% | 75.0% | +6.9 pp | 1.22 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.1% | 25.0% | −6.9 pp | 5.53 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.4% | 51.3% | +5.1 pp | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.6% | 48.7% | −5.1 pp | 2.30 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Spartak Varna sample
- 20 matches
- Ludogorets sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 8 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.