xgEdge

Expected goals

FK Spartak Varna expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Parva Liga (Bulgaria) · after 8 matches · updated 4 Oct

FK Spartak Varna's attacking and defensive expected goals in Parva Liga (Bulgaria) 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

FK Spartak Varna xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
0.95 xG per match
#12/14
Attack (xG per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Ludogorets 2.42
#2 CSKA Sofia 2.24
#3 Levski Sofia 2.09
#4 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 1.66
#5 Botev Plovdiv 1.57
#6 Arda Kardzhali 1.55
#7 FK Dunav Ruse 1.16
#8 Lokomotiv Sofia 1.10
#9 FK Septemvri Sofia 1.09
#10 Cherno More Varna 1.08
#11 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.02
#12 FK Spartak Varna 0.95
#13 Botev Vratsa 0.93
#14 Slavia Sofia 0.75
League avg
1.39
Total
7.61 8 matches
Defence
2.01 xGA per match
#12/14
Defence (xGA per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Levski Sofia 0.73
#2 CSKA Sofia 0.86
#3 Botev Plovdiv 1.01
#4 Ludogorets 1.02
#5 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.14
#6 Arda Kardzhali 1.26
#7 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 1.31
#8 FK Septemvri Sofia 1.41
#9 Cherno More Varna 1.43
#10 Botev Vratsa 1.49
#11 Slavia Sofia 1.60
#12 FK Spartak Varna 2.01
#13 Lokomotiv Sofia 2.10
#14 FK Dunav Ruse 2.31
League avg
1.39
Total
16.09 8 matches
xG difference
-1.06 xGD per match
#13/14
xG difference (xGD per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Ludogorets +1.39
#2 CSKA Sofia +1.38
#3 Levski Sofia +1.36
#4 Botev Plovdiv +0.56
#5 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia +0.35
#6 Arda Kardzhali +0.29
#7 Lokomotiv Plovdiv -0.12
#8 FK Septemvri Sofia -0.32
#9 Cherno More Varna -0.35
#10 Botev Vratsa -0.55
#11 Slavia Sofia -0.85
#12 Lokomotiv Sofia -1.00
#13 FK Spartak Varna -1.06
#14 FK Dunav Ruse -1.16
League avg
0.00
Total
-8.48 8 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
0.85 xPts per match
#11/14
Expected points (xPts per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 CSKA Sofia 2.26
#2 Ludogorets 2.19
#3 Levski Sofia 2.19
#4 Botev Plovdiv 1.80
#5 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 1.58
#6 Arda Kardzhali 1.57
#7 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.24
#8 FK Septemvri Sofia 1.23
#9 Cherno More Varna 1.12
#10 Botev Vratsa 1.03
#11 FK Spartak Varna 0.85
#12 Slavia Sofia 0.80
#13 Lokomotiv Sofia 0.80
#14 FK Dunav Ruse 0.63
League avg
1.38
Total
6.82 vs 10 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 8 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

Expected goals here are summed over 8 of 10 matches — the rest were played with no xG figure published for them, so the margins compare two different lengths of season.

What the xG says

FK Spartak Varna's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Parva Liga (Bulgaria). They rank #13 for xG difference at -1.06 per match, from low shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 9 goals are 1.39 above 7.61 xG, while 8 points are 1.18 above 6.82 xPts — both over the 8 matches with xG. After only 8 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
9 7.61 +1.39 scored 1.39 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
14 16.09 -2.09 conceded 2.09 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
8 6.82 +1.18 1.18 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

FK Spartak Varna are 1.39 goals above their xG after 8 matches. The gap was widest at +4.10, against Botev Plovdiv on Mon 10/08.

Goals
9
xG
7.61
Gap
+1.39
Fri 17/07 Sun 26/07 Mon 03/08 Mon 10/08 Mon 17/08 Sat 22/08 Sat 05/09 Sun 20/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +1.21 +2.61 +3.17 +4.10 +3.37 +3.37 +3.58 +1.39 +1.21 +1.40 +0.56 +0.93 -0.73 +0.00 +0.21 -2.19 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
FK Spartak Varna: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Fri 17/07 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 2 0.79 +1.21 +1.21
Sun 26/07 Cherno More Varna 3 1.60 +1.40 +2.61
Mon 03/08 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1 0.44 +0.56 +3.17
Mon 10/08 Botev Plovdiv 2 1.07 +0.93 +4.10
Mon 17/08 FK Septemvri Sofia 0 0.73 -0.73 +3.37
Sat 22/08 Levski Sofia 0 0.00 +0.00 +3.37
Sat 05/09 CSKA Sofia 1 0.79 +0.21 +3.58
Sun 20/09 Lokomotiv Sofia 0 2.19 -2.19 +1.39

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

FK Spartak Varna xG trend

Current form -1.04 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 1 of 8 matches. The worst was against Levski Sofia on Sat 22/08 (-3.70).

npxG · last 6
0.90
npxGA · last 6
1.93
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 -1.39 Fri 17/07 -0.34 Sun 26/07 -0.50 Mon 03/08 -0.40 Mon 10/08 -0.19 Mon 17/08 -3.70 Sat 22/08 -2.71 Sat 05/09 +1.29 Sun 20/09 -0.99 season avg
FK Spartak Varna: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Fri 17/07 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 0.65 2.04 -1.39 -1.39
Sun 26/07 Cherno More Varna 1.60 1.94 -0.34 -0.87
Mon 03/08 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.38 0.88 -0.50 -0.74
Mon 10/08 Botev Plovdiv 1.07 1.47 -0.40 -0.66
Mon 17/08 FK Septemvri Sofia 0.84 1.03 -0.19 -0.56
Sat 22/08 Levski Sofia 0.00 3.70 -3.70 -1.09
Sat 05/09 CSKA Sofia 0.79 3.50 -2.71 -1.32
Sun 20/09 Lokomotiv Sofia 2.30 1.01 +1.29 -0.99

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 0.95 npxG and 1.95 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 3 hardest of 14 in Parva Liga (Bulgaria)
+0.11 xG vs league average
Over 10 league matches
Last 5
number 2 hardest of 14 in Parva Liga (Bulgaria)
+0.18 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.11 xG vs league average · over 10 matches · tied number 3 hardest of 14

  1. Lokomotiv Sofia Home −0.37
  2. Slavia Sofia Away −0.65
  3. CSKA Sofia Home +0.59
  4. Ludogorets Home +0.67
  5. Levski Sofia Away +0.67
  6. FK Septemvri Sofia Home −0.17
  7. Botev Plovdiv Away +0.30
  8. Lokomotiv Plovdiv Home −0.02
  9. Cherno More Varna Away −0.12
  10. FC CSKA 1948 Sofia Home +0.15

Last 5

+0.18 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 2 hardest of 14

  1. Lokomotiv Sofia Home −0.37
  2. Slavia Sofia Away −0.65
  3. CSKA Sofia Home +0.59
  4. Ludogorets Home +0.67
  5. Levski Sofia Away +0.67

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

FK Spartak Varna shots and chance quality

Low volume, average quality. FK Spartak Varna take 8.5 shots a match (league 11.5) at 0.11 npxG a shot (league 0.12), =11 in Parva Liga (Bulgaria) for volume and #8 for quality. 51% of their shots come from inside the box (league 58%).

Attack

Shot volume
8.5 shots per match
=11/14
Shot volume (shots per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 CSKA Sofia 19.1
#2 Levski Sofia 16.3
#3 Ludogorets 13.5
#4 Botev Plovdiv 12.9
#5 Arda Kardzhali 12.6
#6 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 12.4
#7 Cherno More Varna 11.4
#8 Lokomotiv Sofia 10.8
#9 FK Septemvri Sofia 9.8
#10 Botev Vratsa 8.6
=11 FK Dunav Ruse 8.5
=11 FK Spartak Varna 8.5
=11 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 8.5
#14 Slavia Sofia 6.7
League avg
11.5
Total
68 shots from 8 matches
Chance quality
0.11 npxG per shot
#8/14
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Ludogorets 0.17
#2 Levski Sofia 0.13
#3 Arda Kardzhali 0.12
#4 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.12
#5 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 0.12
#6 FK Dunav Ruse 0.12
#7 Botev Plovdiv 0.11
#8 FK Spartak Varna 0.11
#9 Botev Vratsa 0.11
#10 FK Septemvri Sofia 0.11
#11 CSKA Sofia 0.10
#12 Slavia Sofia 0.10
#13 Cherno More Varna 0.09
#14 Lokomotiv Sofia 0.09
League avg
0.12
Total
7.63 npxG from 68 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
14.9 shots per match
#11/14
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Levski Sofia 7.0
#2 CSKA Sofia 8.1
#3 Ludogorets 9.3
#4 FK Septemvri Sofia 9.6
#5 Botev Vratsa 9.9
#6 Cherno More Varna 10.0
#7 Arda Kardzhali 10.1
#8 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 10.8
#9 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 11.4
#10 Botev Plovdiv 11.7
#11 FK Spartak Varna 14.9
#12 Lokomotiv Sofia 15.0
#13 Slavia Sofia 15.3
#14 FK Dunav Ruse 18.7
League avg
11.5
Total
119 shots allowed from 8 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.13 npxGA per shot
#11/14
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Botev Plovdiv 0.09
#2 Levski Sofia 0.09
#3 Slavia Sofia 0.10
#4 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.10
#5 Arda Kardzhali 0.10
#6 CSKA Sofia 0.11
#7 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 0.11
#8 Ludogorets 0.11
#9 FK Dunav Ruse 0.12
#10 Lokomotiv Sofia 0.13
#11 FK Spartak Varna 0.13
#12 Cherno More Varna 0.14
#13 FK Septemvri Sofia 0.14
#14 Botev Vratsa 0.15
League avg
0.12
Total
15.57 npxGA from 119 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

51% inside the box

League avg 58%

From 35 of 68 shots over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

60% allowed inside the box

League avg 58%

From 71 of 119 shots allowed over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

FK Spartak Varna home and away xG

FK Spartak Varna per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 6 5 with xG 4 3 with xG
xG / match 0.99 0.89
xGA / match 1.83 2.31
xGD / match -0.84 -1.42
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 0.90 0.76

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every FK Spartak Varna match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
10 8 with xG
xG / match
0.95
xGA / match
2.01
xGD / match
-1.06
Points
10 of 30
  1. Sun 20/09 Lokomotiv Sofia H Against the chances xG 2.19 xGA 1.01 xGD +1.18
  2. Sun 13/09 Slavia Sofia A
  3. Sat 05/09 CSKA Sofia H xG 0.79 xGA 3.50 xGD -2.71
  4. Sun 30/08 Ludogorets H
  5. Sat 22/08 Levski Sofia A Weakest underlying xG 0.00 xGA 3.70 xGD -3.70
  6. Mon 17/08 FK Septemvri Sofia H xG 0.73 xGA 1.04 xGD -0.31
  7. Mon 10/08 Botev Plovdiv A xG 1.07 xGA 1.30 xGD -0.23
  8. Mon 03/08 Lokomotiv Plovdiv H xG 0.44 xGA 0.80 xGD -0.36
  9. Sun 26/07 Cherno More Varna A xG 1.60 xGA 1.94 xGD -0.34
  10. Fri 17/07 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia H xG 0.79 xGA 2.80 P xGD -2.01

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.70. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

FK Spartak Varna in Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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