Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 14:00
6d 14h to kick-offBotev Vratsa – FK Spartak Varna
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Botev Vratsa
- 48%
- Draw
- 30%
- FK Spartak Varna
- 23%
| Botev Vratsa | Draw | FK Spartak Varna | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.10 | 3.36 | 4.43 |
- Total goals
- 2.59
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 2 outcomes.
-
Botev Vratsa
- Model
- 47.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 46.1%
- Probability gap
- +1.6 pp
- Edge
- −7.0%
- Fair odds
- 2.10
- Market odds
- 1.95 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.20
- Bookmaker margin
- 11.3%
-
Draw
- Model
- 29.8%
- Market, margin removed
- 29.0%
- Probability gap
- +0.8 pp
- Edge
- −7.7%
- Fair odds
- 3.36
- Market odds
- 3.10 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.53
- Bookmaker margin
- 11.3%
-
FK Spartak Varna
- Model
- 22.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 25.0%
- Probability gap
- −2.4 pp
- Edge
- −18.8%
- Fair odds
- 4.43
- Market odds
- 3.60 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.65
- Bookmaker margin
- 11.3%
Outcomes with value
Over 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Over 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Match result
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Botev Vratsa
48% Botev Vratsa to win
- Attack
- 12th vs 14th
- Botev Vratsa attack v FK Spartak Varna defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 10th
- Botev Vratsa defence v FK Spartak Varna attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.71 vs -1.04
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.55 – 1.04
- Botev Vratsa v FK Spartak Varna
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Botev Vratsa | FK Spartak Varna |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.93 · 11th | (better) 0.93 · 10th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.49 · 10th | 2.11 · 13th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.55 · 10th | -1.18 · 14th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.03 · 10th | 0.81 · 11th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.71 | -1.04 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- Botev Vratsa clean sheet
- 32%
- Botev Vratsa 2+ goals
- 47%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 43%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.3%
- 2:1
- 11.1%
- 1:0
- 9.3%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Botev Vratsa sample
- 20 matches
- FK Spartak Varna sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Botev Vratsa
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · FK Spartak Varna
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.