Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 14:15
Full timeSlavia Sofia 0:0 FK Spartak Varna
Slavia Sofia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. It finished 0–0.
The model against the result
- Slavia Sofia
- 38%
- Draw
- 30% What happened
- FK Spartak Varna
- 32%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
0.47 xG created 1.54 xGA
- D 0.37 created, 1.53 conceded against CSKA Sofia
- L 0.00 created, 2.57 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
- D 0.60 created, 0.91 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia
- W 1.09 created, 0.93 conceded against Botev Vratsa
- D 0.46 created, 0.95 conceded against FK Septemvri Sofia
- L 0.32 created, 2.34 conceded against Levski Sofia
0.73 xG created 2.30 xGA
- D 0.79 created, 2.80 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
- W 1.60 created, 1.94 conceded against Cherno More Varna
- W 0.44 created, 0.80 conceded against Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- L 0.73 created, 1.04 conceded against FK Septemvri Sofia
- L 0.00 created, 3.70 conceded against Levski Sofia
- D 0.79 created, 3.50 conceded against CSKA Sofia
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged1 won6 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Spartak Varna 2+ goals | 3.50 | +32.2% | Lost |
| FK Spartak Varna to win | 3.75 | +19.3% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | +16.0% | Lost |
| FK Spartak Varna to score | 1.53 | +15.2% | Lost |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.15 | +12.0% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.36 | +8.3% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.50 | +6.0% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slavia Sofia | 37.9% | 48.1% | −10.2 pp | 2.64 |
| Draw | 30.3% | 26.8% | +3.5 pp | 3.30 |
| FK Spartak Varna | 31.8% | 25.0% | +6.8 pp | 3.14 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slavia Sofia to score | 78.5% | 75.0% | +3.5 pp | 1.27 |
| Slavia Sofia not to score | 21.5% | 25.0% | −3.5 pp | 4.64 |
| FK Spartak Varna to score | 75.2% | 60.8% | +14.4 pp | 1.33 |
| FK Spartak Varna not to score | 24.8% | 39.2% | −14.4 pp | 4.03 |
| Both teams to score | 60.7% | 48.5% | +12.2 pp | 1.65 |
| Both teams not to score | 39.3% | 51.5% | −12.2 pp | 2.55 |
| Slavia Sofia 2+ goals | 42.4% | 42.3% | +0.1 pp | 2.36 |
| Slavia Sofia at most 1 goal | 57.6% | 57.7% | −0.1 pp | 1.74 |
| FK Spartak Varna 2+ goals | 37.8% | 26.9% | +10.9 pp | 2.65 |
| FK Spartak Varna at most 1 goal | 62.2% | 73.1% | −10.9 pp | 1.61 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.4% | 68.7% | +10.7 pp | 1.26 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.6% | 31.3% | −10.7 pp | 4.85 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.1% | 43.7% | +8.4 pp | 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.9% | 56.3% | −8.4 pp | 2.09 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Slavia Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- FK Spartak Varna sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 4 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 4 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.