Wednesday, 02/09/2026 at 19:00
Full timeSlavia Sofia 1:2 Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 65%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Levski Sofia's attack: 2.34 xG against 1.80 projected (+0.54). Slavia Sofia produced 0.32 xG against 0.66 projected (−0.34).
The model against the result
- Slavia Sofia
- 10%
- Draw
- 25%
- Levski Sofia
- 65% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Levski Sofia produced 0.54 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 5
- 20
- On target
- 2
- 6
- Inside the box
- 2
- 11
- xG per shot
- 0.06
- 0.12
Recent form
0.61 xG created 1.28 xGA
- L 1.16 created, 0.79 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia
- D 0.37 created, 1.53 conceded against CSKA Sofia
- L 0.00 created, 2.57 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
- D 0.60 created, 0.91 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia
- W 1.09 created, 0.93 conceded against Botev Vratsa
- D 0.46 created, 0.95 conceded against FK Septemvri Sofia
2.13 xG created 0.69 xGA
- W 2.59 created, 1.13 conceded against FK Dunav Ruse
- W 2.43 created, 0.53 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia
- W 2.38 created, 0.12 conceded against FK Septemvri Sofia
- W 1.02 created, 0.64 conceded against Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- W 3.70 created, 0.00 conceded against FK Spartak Varna
- W 0.66 created, 1.72 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged2 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 4.75 | +19.1% | Lost |
| Levski Sofia at most 1 goal | 2.50 | +10.8% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.95 | +6.1% | Lost |
| Slavia Sofia to score | 2.00 | +2.8% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 2.25 | +2.6% | Won |
| Slavia Sofia to win | 10.00 | +1.7% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slavia Sofia | 10.2% | 9.4% | +0.7 pp | 9.84 |
| Draw | 25.1% | 19.8% | +5.2 pp | 3.99 |
| Levski Sofia | 64.8% | 70.7% | −6.0 pp | 1.54 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slavia Sofia to score | 51.4% | 46.3% | +5.0 pp | 1.95 |
| Slavia Sofia not to score | 48.6% | 53.7% | −5.0 pp | 2.06 |
| Levski Sofia to score | 85.8% | 86.4% | −0.6 pp | 1.17 |
| Levski Sofia not to score | 14.2% | 13.6% | +0.6 pp | 7.04 |
| Both teams to score | 45.6% | 41.1% | +4.5 pp | 2.19 |
| Both teams not to score | 54.4% | 58.9% | −4.5 pp | 1.84 |
| Slavia Sofia 2+ goals | 13.0% | 13.6% | −0.6 pp | 7.72 |
| Slavia Sofia at most 1 goal | 87.0% | 86.4% | +0.6 pp | 1.15 |
| Levski Sofia 2+ goals | 55.7% | 62.5% | −6.8 pp | 1.80 |
| Levski Sofia at most 1 goal | 44.3% | 37.5% | +6.8 pp | 2.26 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.5% | 75.0% | −0.5 pp | 1.34 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25.5% | 25.0% | +0.5 pp | 3.92 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.6% | 51.3% | −5.7 pp | 2.19 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.4% | 48.7% | +5.7 pp | 1.84 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Slavia Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- Levski Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 7 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 8 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.