Botev Vratsa 0:0 Levski Sofia: xG & match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 16:45

Full time

Match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Botev Vratsa Home 0.79 xG

Levski Sofia Away 2.01 xG

00 Levski Sofia had the better chances, but it finished level

Levski Sofia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 53%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Levski Sofia's attack: 2.01 xG against 1.43 projected (+0.58).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Botev Vratsa: 16%
Draw: 31% What happened
Levski Sofia: 53%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Botev Vratsa 0.74 0.79 +0.05

Levski Sofia 1.43 2.01 +0.58

Levski Sofia produced 0.58 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Botev Vratsa Levski Sofia

Shots: 7; 14
On target: 2; 2
Inside the box: 4; 9
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.14

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Botev Vratsa

0.96 xG created 1.40 xGA

D 0.95 created, 0.55 conceded against Cherno More Varna
L 1.16 created, 0.89 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
L 1.17 created, 3.72 conceded against Ludogorets
L 0.93 created, 1.09 conceded against Slavia Sofia
W 0.54 created, 0.77 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
W 0.99 created, 1.37 conceded against FK Septemvri Sofia

Levski Sofia

1.97 xG created 0.69 xGA

W 2.38 created, 0.12 conceded against FK Septemvri Sofia
W 1.02 created, 0.64 conceded against Lokomotiv Plovdiv
W 3.70 created, 0.00 conceded against FK Spartak Varna
W 0.66 created, 1.72 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
W 2.34 created, 0.32 conceded against Slavia Sofia
W 1.71 created, 1.35 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Botev Vratsa: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged5 won1 lost

Won
Won
Won
Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Botev Vratsa against Levski Sofia before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	4.33	+34.3%	Won
Levski Sofia at most 1 goal	2.10	+19.5%	Won
Levski Sofia not to score	5.50	+17.1%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	1.85	+15.8%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	3.40	+8.8%	Won
Botev Vratsa to win	6.50	+6.8%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Botev Vratsa	16.4%	14.5%	+1.9 pp	6.09
Draw	31.0%	21.8%	+9.2 pp	3.23
Levski Sofia	52.6%	63.7%	−11.1 pp	1.90

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Botev Vratsa to score	55.2%	51.5%	+3.7 pp	1.81
Botev Vratsa not to score	44.8%	48.5%	−3.7 pp	2.23
Levski Sofia to score	78.7%	82.8%	−4.1 pp	1.27
Levski Sofia not to score	21.3%	17.2%	+4.1 pp	4.70
Both teams to score	45.2%	42.3%	+2.9 pp	2.21
Both teams not to score	54.8%	57.7%	−2.9 pp	1.83
Botev Vratsa 2+ goals	16.2%	17.2%	−1.0 pp	6.18
Botev Vratsa at most 1 goal	83.8%	82.8%	+1.0 pp	1.19
Levski Sofia 2+ goals	43.1%	55.7%	−12.7 pp	2.32
Levski Sofia at most 1 goal	56.9%	44.3%	+12.7 pp	1.76
Over 1.5 goals	68.0%	72.3%	−4.3 pp	1.47
Under 1.5 goals	32.0%	27.7%	+4.3 pp	3.12
Over 2.5 goals	37.4%	48.7%	−11.3 pp	2.68
Under 2.5 goals	62.6%	51.3%	+11.3 pp	1.60

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Botev Vratsa sample: 20 matches
Levski Sofia sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.