Levski Sofia 1:0 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia: xG & match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 20:15

Full time

Match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Levski Sofia Home 1.71 xG

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia Away 1.35 xG

10 The scoreline reflected the chances

Levski Sofia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 53%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was FC CSKA 1948 Sofia's attack: 1.35 xG against 0.79 projected (+0.56).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Levski Sofia: 53% What happened
Draw: 30%
FC CSKA 1948 Sofia: 17%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Levski Sofia 1.51 1.71 +0.20

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 0.79 1.35 +0.56

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia produced 0.56 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Levski Sofia FC CSKA 1948 Sofia

Shots: 14; 14
On target: 4; 4
Inside the box: 10; 4
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.10

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Levski Sofia

2.09 xG created 0.56 xGA

W 2.43 created, 0.53 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia
W 2.38 created, 0.12 conceded against FK Septemvri Sofia
W 1.02 created, 0.64 conceded against Lokomotiv Plovdiv
W 3.70 created, 0.00 conceded against FK Spartak Varna
W 0.66 created, 1.72 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
W 2.34 created, 0.32 conceded against Slavia Sofia

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia

1.52 xG created 1.13 xGA

D 2.80 created, 0.79 conceded against FK Spartak Varna
W 0.89 created, 1.16 conceded against Botev Vratsa
W 1.05 created, 1.84 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
W 2.54 created, 1.64 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia
L 1.03 created, 0.49 conceded against FK Septemvri Sofia
W 0.80 created, 0.88 conceded against Lokomotiv Plovdiv

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Levski Sofia: 3 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost

Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Levski Sofia against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.70	+11.3%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	1.70	+0.3%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Levski Sofia	53.4%	59.3%	−5.9 pp	1.87
Draw	30.1%	25.2%	+4.9 pp	3.33
FC CSKA 1948 Sofia	16.5%	15.5%	+1.0 pp	6.04

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	48.2%	46.3%	+1.9 pp	2.07
Both teams not to score	51.8%	53.7%	−1.9 pp	1.93
Over 1.5 goals	71.1%	70.9%	+0.2 pp	1.41
Under 1.5 goals	28.9%	29.1%	−0.2 pp	3.46
Over 2.5 goals	41.0%	44.7%	−3.8 pp	2.44
Under 2.5 goals	59.0%	55.3%	+3.8 pp	1.69

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Levski Sofia sample: 20 matches
FC CSKA 1948 Sofia sample: 20 matches
Computed: 5 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.