Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 16:45
Full timeLokomotiv Plovdiv 1:1 CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Lokomotiv Plovdiv's attack: 0.62 xG against 0.88 projected (−0.26).
The model against the result
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- 25%
- Draw
- 35% What happened
- CSKA Sofia
- 40%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Lokomotiv Plovdiv produced 0.26 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 9
- 14
- On target
- 3
- 4
- Inside the box
- 5
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.09
Recent form
0.94 xG created 0.86 xGA
- L 1.91 created, 0.96 conceded against Ludogorets
- L 0.80 created, 0.44 conceded against FK Spartak Varna
- L 0.64 created, 1.02 conceded against Levski Sofia
- L 0.88 created, 0.80 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
- W 0.51 created, 0.88 conceded against Cherno More Varna
- L 0.87 created, 1.05 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
1.96 xG created 1.06 xGA
- L 0.27 created, 1.59 conceded against Levski Sofia
- D 1.53 created, 0.37 conceded against Slavia Sofia
- W 1.54 created, 2.39 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
- W 1.81 created, 0.34 conceded against FK Dunav Ruse
- D 3.50 created, 0.79 conceded against FK Spartak Varna
- W 3.10 created, 0.87 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged4 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia not to score | 5.50 | +61.4% | Lost |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win | 6.25 | +58.9% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.90 | +36.5% | Won |
| CSKA Sofia at most 1 goal | 2.00 | +36.5% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 3.40 | +22.5% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.80 | +21.1% | Won |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals | 5.50 | +18.5% | Lost |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv to score | 1.83 | +12.5% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 25.4% | 15.1% | +10.3 pp | 3.93 |
| Draw | 35.0% | 24.2% | +10.8 pp | 2.86 |
| CSKA Sofia | 39.6% | 60.8% | −21.2 pp | 2.53 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv to score | 61.4% | 50.0% | +11.4 pp | 1.63 |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv not to score | 38.6% | 50.0% | −11.4 pp | 2.59 |
| CSKA Sofia to score | 70.7% | 82.8% | −12.1 pp | 1.42 |
| CSKA Sofia not to score | 29.3% | 17.2% | +12.1 pp | 3.41 |
| Both teams to score | 45.4% | 46.3% | −1.0 pp | 2.20 |
| Both teams not to score | 54.6% | 53.7% | +1.0 pp | 1.83 |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals | 21.5% | 17.2% | +4.3 pp | 4.64 |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv at most 1 goal | 78.5% | 82.8% | −4.3 pp | 1.27 |
| CSKA Sofia 2+ goals | 31.8% | 53.7% | −21.9 pp | 3.15 |
| CSKA Sofia at most 1 goal | 68.2% | 46.3% | +21.9 pp | 1.47 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.0% | 72.3% | −8.4 pp | 1.56 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 36.0% | 27.7% | +8.4 pp | 2.77 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32.7% | 47.4% | −14.6 pp | 3.05 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 67.3% | 52.6% | +14.6 pp | 1.49 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv sample
- 20 matches
- CSKA Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.