Wednesday, 16/09/2026 at 18:00
Full timeLokomotiv Sofia 0:2 CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 54%. They won 2–0.
The model against the result
- Lokomotiv Sofia
- 19%
- Draw
- 27%
- CSKA Sofia
- 54% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.30 xG created 1.99 xGA
- D 0.91 created, 0.60 conceded against Slavia Sofia
- L 1.64 created, 2.54 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
- L 0.71 created, 0.91 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
- D 2.14 created, 2.57 conceded against FK Dunav Ruse
- L 0.75 created, 3.62 conceded against Ludogorets
- D 1.66 created, 1.71 conceded against Cherno More Varna
1.96 xG created 1.06 xGA
- L 0.27 created, 1.59 conceded against Levski Sofia
- D 1.53 created, 0.37 conceded against Slavia Sofia
- W 1.54 created, 2.39 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
- W 1.81 created, 0.34 conceded against FK Dunav Ruse
- D 3.50 created, 0.79 conceded against FK Spartak Varna
- W 3.10 created, 0.87 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged1 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia at most 1 goal | 2.50 | +15.4% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.00 | +9.6% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.35 | +9.3% | Won |
| CSKA Sofia not to score | 7.00 | +6.2% | Lost |
| Lokomotiv Sofia to win | 5.50 | +4.3% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Sofia | 19.0% | 16.9% | +2.1 pp | 5.27 |
| Draw | 27.4% | 23.2% | +4.2 pp | 3.65 |
| CSKA Sofia | 53.6% | 59.9% | −6.3 pp | 1.86 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Sofia to score | 66.5% | 64.5% | +2.0 pp | 1.50 |
| Lokomotiv Sofia not to score | 33.5% | 35.5% | −2.0 pp | 2.99 |
| CSKA Sofia to score | 84.8% | 86.4% | −1.6 pp | 1.18 |
| CSKA Sofia not to score | 15.2% | 13.6% | +1.6 pp | 6.59 |
| Both teams to score | 58.0% | 57.7% | +0.4 pp | 1.72 |
| Both teams not to score | 42.0% | 42.3% | −0.4 pp | 2.38 |
| Lokomotiv Sofia 2+ goals | 26.9% | 27.7% | −0.8 pp | 3.72 |
| Lokomotiv Sofia at most 1 goal | 73.1% | 72.3% | +0.8 pp | 1.37 |
| CSKA Sofia 2+ goals | 53.8% | 62.5% | −8.7 pp | 1.86 |
| CSKA Sofia at most 1 goal | 46.2% | 37.5% | +8.7 pp | 2.17 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.1% | 81.1% | −0.9 pp | 1.25 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19.9% | 18.9% | +0.9 pp | 5.03 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.5% | 59.9% | −6.4 pp | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.5% | 40.1% | +6.4 pp | 2.15 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Lokomotiv Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- CSKA Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 8 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 8 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.