Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 19:30
Full timeBotev Plovdiv 2:0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Botev Plovdiv's attack: 1.05 xG against 1.34 projected (−0.29).
The model against the result
- Botev Plovdiv
- 45% What happened
- Draw
- 32%
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- 23%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Botev Plovdiv produced 0.29 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 7
- 10
- On target
- 5
- 3
- Inside the box
- 4
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.15
- 0.09
Recent form
1.71 xG created 1.02 xGA
- D 2.29 created, 0.53 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia
- L 2.39 created, 1.54 conceded against CSKA Sofia
- W 2.29 created, 0.25 conceded against Cherno More Varna
- L 0.81 created, 2.58 conceded against Ludogorets
- L 0.77 created, 0.54 conceded against Botev Vratsa
- L 1.72 created, 0.66 conceded against Levski Sofia
0.87 xG created 1.20 xGA
- L 0.50 created, 3.10 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
- L 1.91 created, 0.96 conceded against Ludogorets
- L 0.80 created, 0.44 conceded against FK Spartak Varna
- L 0.64 created, 1.02 conceded against Levski Sofia
- L 0.88 created, 0.80 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
- W 0.51 created, 0.88 conceded against Cherno More Varna
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged1 won5 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.60 | +16.5% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.85 | +11.4% | Won |
| Botev Plovdiv at most 1 goal | 1.83 | +10.4% | Lost |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win | 4.75 | +7.1% | Lost |
| Botev Plovdiv not to score | 4.50 | +5.1% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 3.50 | +4.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botev Plovdiv | 45.1% | 53.9% | −8.8 pp | 2.22 |
| Draw | 32.4% | 26.2% | +6.1 pp | 3.09 |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 22.5% | 19.9% | +2.7 pp | 4.44 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botev Plovdiv to score | 76.7% | 79.2% | −2.5 pp | 1.30 |
| Botev Plovdiv not to score | 23.3% | 20.8% | +2.5 pp | 4.28 |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv to score | 62.9% | 60.8% | +2.1 pp | 1.59 |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv not to score | 37.1% | 39.2% | −2.1 pp | 2.69 |
| Both teams to score | 50.1% | 50.0% | +0.1 pp | 2.00 |
| Both teams not to score | 49.9% | 50.0% | −0.1 pp | 2.00 |
| Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals | 39.8% | 50.0% | −10.2 pp | 2.51 |
| Botev Plovdiv at most 1 goal | 60.2% | 50.0% | +10.2 pp | 1.66 |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals | 22.9% | 25.0% | −2.1 pp | 4.37 |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv at most 1 goal | 77.1% | 75.0% | +2.1 pp | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.2% | 73.1% | −2.9 pp | 1.42 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 29.8% | 26.9% | +2.9 pp | 3.36 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.8% | 48.7% | −8.9 pp | 2.51 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 60.2% | 51.3% | +8.9 pp | 1.66 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Botev Plovdiv sample
- 20 matches
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.