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Expected goals

FK Septemvri Sofia expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Parva Liga (Bulgaria) · after 7 matches · updated 1 Oct

FK Septemvri Sofia's attacking and defensive expected goals in Parva Liga (Bulgaria) 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

FK Septemvri Sofia xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
0.92 xG per match
#12/14
Attack (xG per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Ludogorets 2.42
#2 CSKA Sofia 2.13
#3 Levski Sofia 2.09
#4 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 1.67
#5 Botev Plovdiv 1.61
#6 Arda Kardzhali 1.55
#7 FK Dunav Ruse 1.16
#8 Lokomotiv Sofia 1.10
#9 Cherno More Varna 1.05
#10 FK Spartak Varna 0.93
#11 Botev Vratsa 0.93
#12 FK Septemvri Sofia 0.92
#13 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.89
#14 Slavia Sofia 0.75
League avg
1.37
Total
6.44 7 matches
Defence
1.11 xGA per match
#6/14
Defence (xGA per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Levski Sofia 0.73
#2 CSKA Sofia 0.90
#3 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.92
#4 Botev Plovdiv 1.01
#5 Ludogorets 1.02
#6 FK Septemvri Sofia 1.11
#7 Arda Kardzhali 1.26
#8 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 1.31
#9 Cherno More Varna 1.41
#10 Botev Vratsa 1.49
#11 Slavia Sofia 1.60
#12 Lokomotiv Sofia 2.10
#13 FK Spartak Varna 2.11
#14 FK Dunav Ruse 2.31
League avg
1.37
Total
7.78 7 matches
xG difference
-0.19 xGD per match
#8/14
xG difference (xGD per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Ludogorets +1.39
#2 Levski Sofia +1.36
#3 CSKA Sofia +1.23
#4 Botev Plovdiv +0.60
#5 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia +0.36
#6 Arda Kardzhali +0.29
#7 Lokomotiv Plovdiv -0.03
#8 FK Septemvri Sofia -0.19
#9 Cherno More Varna -0.36
#10 Botev Vratsa -0.55
#11 Slavia Sofia -0.85
#12 Lokomotiv Sofia -1.00
#13 FK Dunav Ruse -1.16
#14 FK Spartak Varna -1.18
League avg
0.00
Total
-1.34 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.28 xPts per match
#7/14
Expected points (xPts per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Ludogorets 2.19
#2 Levski Sofia 2.19
#3 CSKA Sofia 2.18
#4 Botev Plovdiv 1.83
#5 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 1.59
#6 Arda Kardzhali 1.57
#7 FK Septemvri Sofia 1.28
#8 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.28
#9 Cherno More Varna 1.11
#10 Botev Vratsa 1.03
#11 FK Spartak Varna 0.81
#12 Slavia Sofia 0.80
#13 Lokomotiv Sofia 0.80
#14 FK Dunav Ruse 0.63
League avg
1.38
Total
8.98 vs 8 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

Expected goals here are summed over 7 of 10 matches — the rest were played with no xG figure published for them, so the margins compare two different lengths of season.

What the xG says

FK Septemvri Sofia's underlying numbers sit close to the Parva Liga (Bulgaria) average. They rank #8 for xG difference at -0.19 per match, from low shot volume and low chance quality. Their 6 goals are 0.44 below 6.44 xG, while 8 points are 0.98 below 8.98 xPts — both over the 7 matches with xG. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
6 6.44 -0.44 scored 0.44 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
11 7.78 +3.22 conceded 3.22 more than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
8 8.98 -0.98 0.98 points below xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

FK Septemvri Sofia are 0.44 goals below their xG after 7 matches. The gap was widest at -0.55, against FK Spartak Varna on Mon 17/08.

Goals
6
xG
6.44
Gap
-0.44
Sat 18/07 Sat 01/08 Mon 17/08 Sun 23/08 Fri 28/08 Fri 04/09 Sat 19/09 -1 0 +1 -0.39 -0.51 -0.55 -0.04 +0.01 +0.64 -0.44 -0.39 -0.12 -0.04 +0.51 +0.05 +0.63 -1.08 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
FK Septemvri Sofia: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 18/07 Arda Kardzhali 1 1.39 -0.39 -0.39
Sat 01/08 Levski Sofia 0 0.12 -0.12 -0.51
Mon 17/08 FK Spartak Varna 1 1.04 -0.04 -0.55
Sun 23/08 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 1 0.49 +0.51 -0.04
Fri 28/08 Slavia Sofia 1 0.95 +0.05 +0.01
Fri 04/09 Botev Vratsa 2 1.37 +0.63 +0.64
Sat 19/09 Botev Plovdiv 0 1.08 -1.08 -0.44

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

FK Septemvri Sofia xG trend

Current form -0.38 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 4 of 7 matches. The worst was against Levski Sofia on Sat 01/08 (-2.21).

npxG · last 6
0.82
npxGA · last 6
1.21
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +0.73 Sat 18/07 -2.21 Sat 01/08 +0.19 Mon 17/08 -0.54 Sun 23/08 +0.33 Fri 28/08 +0.38 Fri 04/09 -0.45 Sat 19/09 -0.22 season avg
FK Septemvri Sofia: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 18/07 Arda Kardzhali 1.39 0.66 +0.73 +0.73
Sat 01/08 Levski Sofia 0.02 2.23 -2.21 -0.74
Mon 17/08 FK Spartak Varna 1.03 0.84 +0.19 -0.43
Sun 23/08 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 0.49 1.03 -0.54 -0.46
Fri 28/08 Slavia Sofia 0.95 0.62 +0.33 -0.30
Fri 04/09 Botev Vratsa 1.37 0.99 +0.38 -0.19
Sat 19/09 Botev Plovdiv 1.08 1.53 -0.45 -0.22

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 0.90 npxG and 1.13 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 3 hardest of 14 in Parva Liga (Bulgaria)
+0.11 xG vs league average
Over 10 league matches
Last 5
number 6 hardest of 14 in Parva Liga (Bulgaria)
+0.06 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.11 xG vs league average · over 10 matches · tied number 3 hardest of 14

  1. Botev Plovdiv Home +0.35
  2. Ludogorets Away +0.68
  3. Botev Vratsa Home −0.24
  4. Slavia Sofia Away −0.66
  5. FC CSKA 1948 Sofia Home +0.18
  6. FK Spartak Varna Away −0.64
  7. CSKA Sofia Home +0.55
  8. Levski Sofia Away +0.67
  9. Lokomotiv Plovdiv Away +0.04
  10. Arda Kardzhali Home +0.15

Last 5

+0.06 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 6 hardest of 14

  1. Botev Plovdiv Home +0.35
  2. Ludogorets Away +0.68
  3. Botev Vratsa Home −0.24
  4. Slavia Sofia Away −0.66
  5. FC CSKA 1948 Sofia Home +0.18

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

FK Septemvri Sofia shots and chance quality

Low volume, low quality. FK Septemvri Sofia take 9.0 shots a match (league 11.4) at 0.10 npxG a shot (league 0.11), #9 in Parva Liga (Bulgaria) for volume and #10 for quality. 48% of their shots come from inside the box (league 57%).

Attack

Shot volume
9.0 shots per match
#9/14
Shot volume (shots per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 CSKA Sofia 19.7
#2 Levski Sofia 16.3
#3 Ludogorets 13.5
#4 Botev Plovdiv 12.8
#5 Arda Kardzhali 12.6
#6 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 12.6
#7 Cherno More Varna 11.1
#8 Lokomotiv Sofia 10.8
#9 FK Septemvri Sofia 9.0
#10 Botev Vratsa 8.6
#11 FK Dunav Ruse 8.5
#12 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 8.3
#13 FK Spartak Varna 8.1
#14 Slavia Sofia 6.7
League avg
11.4
Total
63 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.10 npxG per shot
#10/14
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Ludogorets 0.17
#2 Levski Sofia 0.13
#3 Arda Kardzhali 0.12
#4 FK Dunav Ruse 0.12
#5 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 0.12
#6 Botev Plovdiv 0.12
#7 FK Spartak Varna 0.12
#8 Botev Vratsa 0.11
#9 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.11
#10 FK Septemvri Sofia 0.10
#11 Slavia Sofia 0.10
#12 CSKA Sofia 0.10
#13 Cherno More Varna 0.09
#14 Lokomotiv Sofia 0.09
League avg
0.11
Total
6.33 npxG from 63 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
8.6 shots per match
#3/14
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Levski Sofia 7.0
#2 CSKA Sofia 8.3
#3 FK Septemvri Sofia 8.6
#4 Ludogorets 9.3
#5 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 9.7
=6 Botev Vratsa 9.9
=6 Cherno More Varna 9.9
#8 Arda Kardzhali 10.1
#9 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 11.2
#10 Botev Plovdiv 11.8
=11 FK Spartak Varna 15.0
=11 Lokomotiv Sofia 15.0
#13 Slavia Sofia 15.3
#14 FK Dunav Ruse 18.7
League avg
11.4
Total
60 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.13 npxGA per shot
#11/14
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Botev Plovdiv 0.09
#2 Levski Sofia 0.09
#3 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.09
#4 Slavia Sofia 0.10
#5 Arda Kardzhali 0.10
#6 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 0.11
#7 CSKA Sofia 0.11
#8 Ludogorets 0.11
#9 FK Dunav Ruse 0.12
#10 Lokomotiv Sofia 0.13
#11 FK Septemvri Sofia 0.13
#12 FK Spartak Varna 0.13
#13 Cherno More Varna 0.13
#14 Botev Vratsa 0.15
League avg
0.11
Total
7.90 npxGA from 60 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

48% inside the box

League avg 57%

From 30 of 63 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

63% allowed inside the box

League avg 57%

From 38 of 60 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

FK Septemvri Sofia home and away xG

FK Septemvri Sofia per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 5 4 with xG 5 3 with xG
xG / match 1.08 0.70
xGA / match 1.05 1.19
xGD / match +0.03 -0.49
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.36 1.17

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every FK Septemvri Sofia match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Away this season

Matches
5 3 with xG
xG / match
0.70
xGA / match
1.19
xGD / match
-0.49
Points
4 of 15
  1. Mon 14/09 Ludogorets A
  2. Fri 28/08 Slavia Sofia A xG 0.95 xGA 0.46 xGD +0.49
  3. Mon 17/08 FK Spartak Varna A xG 1.04 xGA 0.73 xGD +0.31
  4. Sat 01/08 Levski Sofia A xG 0.12 xGA 2.38 xGD -2.26
  5. Sun 26/07 Lokomotiv Plovdiv A

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

FK Septemvri Sofia in Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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