Friday, 18/09/2026 at 21:00
Full timeBohemian FC 2:1 Drogheda United
Bohemian FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 63%. They won 2–1. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.
The model against the result
- Bohemian FC
- 63% What happened
- Draw
- 23%
- Drogheda United
- 14%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 20
- 11
- On target
- 6
- 3
- Inside the box
- 13
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.10
- 0.08
Recent form
1.94 xG created 1.26 xGA
- W 1.78 created, 2.28 conceded against Drogheda United
- D 2.23 created, 0.24 conceded against Galway United
- L 1.04 created, 1.66 conceded against Waterford FC
- W 2.32 created, 1.39 conceded against Derry City
- W 1.48 created, 0.15 conceded against Sligo Rovers
- W 2.77 created, 1.84 conceded against Galway United
1.09 xG created 1.72 xGA
- D 0.94 created, 0.76 conceded against Shamrock Rovers
- D 0.60 created, 2.18 conceded against Galway United
- L 0.39 created, 1.83 conceded against St. Patrick's Athletic
- L 1.89 created, 3.04 conceded against Dundalk FC
- W 1.42 created, 1.22 conceded against Sligo Rovers
- W 1.32 created, 1.32 conceded against Shelbourne
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged2 won2 lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | +14.2% | Won |
| Drogheda United to score | 1.62 | +5.4% | Won |
| Drogheda United 2+ goals | 4.00 | +2.5% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.33 | +0.3% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bohemian FC | 62.9% | 65.0% | −2.1 pp | 1.59 |
| Draw | 23.1% | 21.0% | +2.1 pp | 4.32 |
| Drogheda United | 14.0% | 14.0% | −0.0 pp | 7.15 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bohemian FC to score | 89.7% | 88.1% | +1.6 pp | 1.12 |
| Bohemian FC not to score | 10.3% | 11.9% | −1.6 pp | 9.67 |
| Drogheda United to score | 65.3% | 57.7% | +7.6 pp | 1.53 |
| Drogheda United not to score | 34.7% | 42.3% | −7.6 pp | 2.88 |
| Both teams to score | 59.8% | 50.0% | +9.8 pp | 1.67 |
| Both teams not to score | 40.2% | 50.0% | −9.8 pp | 2.49 |
| Bohemian FC 2+ goals | 64.2% | 64.5% | −0.3 pp | 1.56 |
| Bohemian FC at most 1 goal | 35.8% | 35.5% | +0.3 pp | 2.79 |
| Drogheda United 2+ goals | 25.6% | 23.4% | +2.2 pp | 3.90 |
| Drogheda United at most 1 goal | 74.4% | 76.6% | −2.2 pp | 1.34 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.8% | 81.1% | +3.7 pp | 1.18 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15.2% | 18.9% | −3.7 pp | 6.57 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.2% | 59.9% | +1.3 pp | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.8% | 40.1% | −1.3 pp | 2.58 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Bohemian FC sample
- 20 matches
- Drogheda United sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 12 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.