Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 20:45
Full timeSligo Rovers 0:1 St. Patrick's Athletic
St. Patrick's Athletic were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 60%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Sligo Rovers's attack: 0.60 xG against 1.03 projected (−0.43). St. Patrick's Athletic produced 2.38 xG against 2.02 projected (+0.36).
The model against the result
- Sligo Rovers
- 16%
- Draw
- 24%
- St. Patrick's Athletic
- 60% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Sligo Rovers produced 0.43 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 5
- 17
- On target
- 3
- 7
- Inside the box
- 3
- 12
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.14
Recent form
0.76 xG created 1.72 xGA
- D 1.35 created, 1.74 conceded against Dundalk FC
- L 0.23 created, 1.68 conceded against Derry City
- D 0.66 created, 1.59 conceded against Waterford FC
- L 0.15 created, 1.48 conceded against Bohemian FC
- L 1.22 created, 1.42 conceded against Drogheda United
- L 0.97 created, 2.42 conceded against Galway United
2.01 xG created 0.90 xGA
- D 1.67 created, 0.50 conceded against Derry City
- W 3.15 created, 1.12 conceded against Shelbourne
- W 1.83 created, 0.39 conceded against Drogheda United
- L 1.42 created, 2.27 conceded against Waterford FC
- W 1.03 created, 0.89 conceded against Shamrock Rovers
- W 2.94 created, 0.26 conceded against Dundalk FC
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
- St. Patrick's Athletic 2:0 Sligo Rovers 19/06/2026 xG 3.73 – 0.85
- Sligo Rovers 1:1 St. Patrick's Athletic 04/05/2026 xG 1.14 – 0.87
- St. Patrick's Athletic 4:1 Sligo Rovers 03/04/2026 xG 3.87 – 0.29
- Sligo Rovers 1:0 St. Patrick's Athletic 27/09/2025 xG 0.89 – 0.70
- St. Patrick's Athletic 3:0 Sligo Rovers 10/08/2025 xG 4.28 – 0.22
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sligo Rovers to win | 8.00 | +26.7% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | +16.9% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.20 | +1.9% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | +0.1% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sligo Rovers | 15.8% | 11.2% | +4.6 pp | 6.31 |
| Draw | 24.3% | 21.4% | +2.9 pp | 4.12 |
| St. Patrick's Athletic | 59.9% | 67.4% | −7.5 pp | 1.67 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 61.2% | 50.0% | +11.2 pp | 1.63 |
| Both teams not to score | 38.8% | 50.0% | −11.2 pp | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.6% | 79.2% | +5.5 pp | 1.18 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15.4% | 20.8% | −5.5 pp | 6.51 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.8% | 58.2% | +2.6 pp | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.2% | 41.8% | −2.6 pp | 2.55 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Sligo Rovers sample
- 20 matches
- St. Patrick's Athletic sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 12 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 12 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.