St. Patrick's Athletic 2:0 Shamrock Rovers: xG & match report · Premier Division (Ireland)

Friday, 11/09/2026 at 21:00

Full time

Match report · Premier Division (Ireland)

St. Patrick's Athletic Home 1.03 xG

Shamrock Rovers Away 0.89 xG

20 The chances were evenly matched

St. Patrick's Athletic were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 51%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was St. Patrick's Athletic's attack: 1.03 xG against 1.74 projected (−0.71).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

St. Patrick's Athletic: 51% What happened
Draw: 28%
Shamrock Rovers: 22%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

St. Patrick's Athletic 1.74 1.03 -0.71

Shamrock Rovers 1.13 0.89 -0.24

St. Patrick's Athletic produced 0.71 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

St. Patrick's Athletic Shamrock Rovers

Shots: 10; 10
On target: 5; 4
Inside the box: 5; 6
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.09

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

St. Patrick's Athletic

2.10 xG created 1.19 xGA

D 2.55 created, 1.43 conceded against Waterford FC
D 1.98 created, 1.43 conceded against Dundalk FC
D 1.67 created, 0.50 conceded against Derry City
W 3.15 created, 1.12 conceded against Shelbourne
W 1.83 created, 0.39 conceded against Drogheda United
L 1.42 created, 2.27 conceded against Waterford FC

Shamrock Rovers

1.68 xG created 1.37 xGA

W 2.49 created, 2.40 conceded against Galway United
W 1.62 created, 1.12 conceded against Sligo Rovers
D 0.76 created, 0.94 conceded against Drogheda United
W 2.66 created, 1.72 conceded against Dundalk FC
D 0.89 created, 1.20 conceded against Derry City
D 1.65 created, 0.82 conceded against Shelbourne

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

St. Patrick's Athletic: 1 won · 0 drawn · 4 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged4 won2 lost

Lost
Won
Won
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on St. Patrick's Athletic against Shamrock Rovers before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.80	+10.5%	Lost
St. Patrick's Athletic to win	2.15	+8.6%	Won
St. Patrick's Athletic 2+ goals	2.00	+7.5%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.85	+4.4%	Lost
St. Patrick's Athletic to score	1.22	+3.6%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.25	+2.5%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
St. Patrick's Athletic	50.5%	42.5%	+8.1 pp	1.98
Draw	27.5%	28.1%	−0.6 pp	3.63
Shamrock Rovers	22.0%	29.4%	−7.5 pp	4.55

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
St. Patrick's Athletic to score	84.8%	76.6%	+8.2 pp	1.18
St. Patrick's Athletic not to score	15.2%	23.4%	−8.2 pp	6.56
Shamrock Rovers to score	70.5%	70.9%	−0.4 pp	1.42
Shamrock Rovers not to score	29.5%	29.1%	+0.4 pp	3.40
Both teams to score	61.4%	52.0%	+9.4 pp	1.63
Both teams not to score	38.6%	48.0%	−9.4 pp	2.59
St. Patrick's Athletic 2+ goals	53.7%	46.3%	+7.4 pp	1.86
St. Patrick's Athletic at most 1 goal	46.3%	53.7%	−7.4 pp	2.16
Shamrock Rovers 2+ goals	31.6%	35.5%	−3.8 pp	3.16
Shamrock Rovers at most 1 goal	68.4%	64.5%	+3.8 pp	1.46
Over 1.5 goals	82.0%	75.0%	+7.0 pp	1.22
Under 1.5 goals	18.0%	25.0%	−7.0 pp	5.56
Over 2.5 goals	56.4%	51.3%	+5.1 pp	1.77
Under 2.5 goals	43.6%	48.7%	−5.1 pp	2.29

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
St. Patrick's Athletic sample: 20 matches
Shamrock Rovers sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.