Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Aston Villa – Coventry City
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Aston Villa
- 40%
- Draw
- 30%
- Coventry City
- 30%
| Aston Villa | Draw | Coventry City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.49 | 3.30 | 3.38 |
- Total goals
- 2.68
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score
- 60%
One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Aston Villa
40% Aston Villa to win
- Attack
- 15th vs 17th
- Aston Villa attack v Coventry City defence
- Defence
- 18th vs 17th
- Aston Villa defence v Coventry City attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.71 vs -0.75
- xGD per match, last 5
- Projected goals
- 1.45 – 1.23
- Aston Villa v Coventry City
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 5 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Squad news
Aston Villa
13 listed-
Ollie Watkins 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Al Hilal permanently
-
Ian Maatsen 0% chance
Defender · Ankle injury - Unknown return date
-
Pau Torres 0% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Brian Madjo 0% chance
Forward · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Leon Bailey 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Olympiakos permanently
-
Marco Bizot 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Back injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Kosta Nedeljkovic 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Rangers on loan for the rest of the season
-
Luka Lynch 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Oxford United on loan until January
-
Amadou Onana 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Samuel Iling-Junior 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Bolton Wanderers on loan for the rest of the season
-
Leon Goretzka 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Lucas Digne 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Paris Saint-Germain permanently
-
Alysson 75% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Coventry City
14 listed-
Oliver Dovin 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Leyton Orient on loan for the rest of the season
-
Aurèle Amenda 0% chance
Defender · Calf injury - Unknown return date
-
Taiwo Awoniyi 0% chance
Forward · Suspended until 19 Oct
-
Kai Andrews 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Oxford United on loan for the rest of the season
-
Liam Kitching 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Sheffield United on loan for the rest of the season
-
Raphael Borges Rodrigues 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Burton Albion on loan for the rest of the season
-
Haji Wright 0% chance
Forward · Thigh injury - Unknown return date
-
Luke Woolfenden 0% chance
Defender · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Jahnoah Markelo 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai permanently
-
Kaine Kesler-Hayden 0% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
-
Miguel Brau 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Academico de Viseu on loan for the rest of the season
-
Josh Eccles 0% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Expected back 12 Oct
-
Norman Bassette 0% chance
Forward · Has joined KVC Westerlo on loan for the rest of the season
-
Milan van Ewijk 75% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Aston Villa | Coventry City |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.91 · 20th | (better) 0.97 · 19th |
| xGA / match | 1.84 · 19th | (better) 1.73 · 12th |
| xGD / match | -0.94 · 20th | (better) -0.75 · 18th |
| xPts / match | (better) 0.90 · 18th | 0.87 · 19th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.71 | -0.75 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Aston Villa clean sheet
- 26%
- Aston Villa 2+ goals
- 44%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score: no
- 40%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.3%
- 2:1
- 10.3%
- 1:2
- 8.6%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
· 1 warning
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Aston Villa sample
- 20 matches
- Coventry City sample
- 5 matches
- Home xG sample · Aston Villa
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Coventry City
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- Coventry City has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.