Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 18:30
Full timeNottingham Forest 0:1 Coventry City
Nottingham Forest were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. Coventry City won 1–0. The biggest difference was Coventry City's attack: 0.67 xG against 1.15 projected (−0.48). Nottingham Forest produced 1.10 xG against 1.53 projected (−0.43).
Goals
- 55' Jay DaSilva Coventry City · 0.29 xG chance 0–1
The model against the result
- Nottingham Forest
- 44%
- Draw
- 30%
- Coventry City
- 26% What happened
Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Coventry City produced 0.48 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 24
- 10
- On target
- 2
- 3
- Inside the box
- 12
- 5
- xG per shot
- 0.05
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 0.80
- 0.55
- Set-piece xG
- 0.33
- 0.14
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.15 for Nottingham Forest and 0.67 for Coventry City.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
34 shots · 1.82 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Nottingham Forest
- Coventry City
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.63 xG created 1.60 xGA
- L 1.88 created, 4.57 conceded against Manchester United
- D 1.73 created, 0.95 conceded against Bournemouth
- L 0.66 created, 0.47 conceded against Leeds United
- D 2.30 created, 1.75 conceded against Liverpool
- D 0.92 created, 1.06 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
- W 2.28 created, 0.82 conceded against Aston Villa
1.05 xG created 1.88 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged4 won3 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry City to win | 5.50 | +42.1% | Won |
| Coventry City 2+ goals | 3.75 | +21.9% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.90 | +15.8% | Lost |
| Nottingham Forest not to score | 6.00 | +13.5% | Won |
| Nottingham Forest at most 1 goal | 2.10 | +11.7% | Won |
| Coventry City to score | 1.53 | +9.3% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | +4.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | 44.5% | 58.6% | −14.1 pp | 2.25 |
| Draw | 29.7% | 24.2% | +5.4 pp | 3.37 |
| Coventry City | 25.8% | 17.2% | +8.6 pp | 3.87 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest to score | 81.1% | 84.2% | −3.1 pp | 1.23 |
| Nottingham Forest not to score | 18.9% | 15.8% | +3.1 pp | 5.29 |
| Coventry City to score | 71.3% | 60.8% | +10.5 pp | 1.40 |
| Coventry City not to score | 28.7% | 39.2% | −10.5 pp | 3.48 |
| Both teams to score | 59.5% | 53.3% | +6.2 pp | 1.68 |
| Both teams not to score | 40.5% | 46.7% | −6.2 pp | 2.47 |
| Nottingham Forest 2+ goals | 46.8% | 55.7% | −8.9 pp | 2.14 |
| Nottingham Forest at most 1 goal | 53.2% | 44.3% | +8.9 pp | 1.88 |
| Coventry City 2+ goals | 32.5% | 25.0% | +7.5 pp | 3.08 |
| Coventry City at most 1 goal | 67.5% | 75.0% | −7.5 pp | 1.48 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.1% | 76.2% | +2.9 pp | 1.26 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.9% | 23.8% | −2.9 pp | 4.79 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.7% | 52.6% | −0.9 pp | 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.3% | 47.4% | +0.9 pp | 2.07 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Nottingham Forest sample
- 20 matches
- Coventry City sample
- 4 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Coventry City has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.