Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 13:30
Full timeLiverpool 2:2 Nottingham Forest
Liverpool were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 55%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Nottingham Forest's attack: 2.30 xG against 1.07 projected (+1.23).
Goals
- 24' Dan Ndoye Nottingham Forest · 0.11 xG chance 0–1
- 60' Alexander Isak Liverpool · 0.85 xG chance 1–1
- 70' Morgan Gibbs-White (pen.) Nottingham Forest · 0.82 xG chance 1–2
- 82' Víctor Muñoz Liverpool · 0.06 xG chance 2–2
The model against the result
- Liverpool
- 55%
- Draw
- 26% What happened
- Nottingham Forest
- 19%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Nottingham Forest produced 1.23 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 13
- 12
- On target
- 4
- 3
- Inside the box
- 8
- 11
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.19
- Open play xG
- 1.52
- 1.18
- Set-piece xG
- 0.07
- 0.30
- Penalties
- 0
- 1
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.61 for Liverpool.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
25 shots · 3.89 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Liverpool
- Nottingham Forest
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.68 xG created 1.68 xGA
- W 1.15 created, 2.26 conceded against Crystal Palace
- L 0.89 created, 2.34 conceded against Manchester United
- D 0.56 created, 0.50 conceded against Chelsea
- L 1.43 created, 1.85 conceded against Aston Villa
- D 3.04 created, 1.56 conceded against Brentford
- D 2.98 created, 1.58 conceded against Newcastle United
1.42 xG created 1.72 xGA
- W 1.10 created, 0.70 conceded against Sunderland
- W 2.05 created, 2.15 conceded against Chelsea
- D 1.10 created, 1.48 conceded against Newcastle United
- L 1.88 created, 4.57 conceded against Manchester United
- D 1.73 created, 0.95 conceded against Bournemouth
- L 0.66 created, 0.47 conceded against Leeds United
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged4 won4 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 4.75 | +23.8% | Won |
| Nottingham Forest to win | 6.50 | +20.3% | Lost |
| Liverpool not to score | 9.00 | +18.7% | Lost |
| Liverpool at most 1 goal | 2.75 | +15.8% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.63 | +9.8% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.70 | +3.9% | Won |
| Nottingham Forest to score | 1.50 | +3.0% | Won |
| Nottingham Forest 2+ goals | 3.50 | +2.0% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 55.4% | 65.4% | −10.0 pp | 1.80 |
| Draw | 26.1% | 20.0% | +6.1 pp | 3.84 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18.5% | 14.6% | +3.9 pp | 5.40 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool to score | 86.8% | 89.4% | −2.6 pp | 1.15 |
| Liverpool not to score | 13.2% | 10.6% | +2.6 pp | 7.58 |
| Nottingham Forest to score | 68.7% | 62.5% | +6.2 pp | 1.46 |
| Nottingham Forest not to score | 31.3% | 37.5% | −6.2 pp | 3.19 |
| Both teams to score | 61.1% | 54.7% | +6.4 pp | 1.64 |
| Both teams not to score | 38.9% | 45.3% | −6.4 pp | 2.57 |
| Liverpool 2+ goals | 57.9% | 66.3% | −8.4 pp | 1.73 |
| Liverpool at most 1 goal | 42.1% | 33.7% | +8.4 pp | 2.38 |
| Nottingham Forest 2+ goals | 29.1% | 26.9% | +2.3 pp | 3.43 |
| Nottingham Forest at most 1 goal | 70.9% | 73.1% | −2.3 pp | 1.41 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.1% | 82.8% | +0.3 pp | 1.20 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16.9% | 17.2% | −0.3 pp | 5.91 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.2% | 63.6% | −5.5 pp | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.8% | 36.4% | +5.5 pp | 2.39 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Liverpool sample
- 20 matches
- Nottingham Forest sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 4 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 4 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.