Chelsea 1:3 Nottingham Forest: xG & match report · Premier League

Monday, 04/05/2026 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Premier League

Chelsea Home 2.15 xG · 21 shots

Nottingham Forest Away 2.05 xG · 6 shots

13 The chances were evenly matched

Goals

2' Taiwo Awoniyi Nottingham Forest · 0.20 xG chance 0–1
15' Igor Jesus (pen.) Nottingham Forest · 0.82 xG chance 0–2
52' Taiwo Awoniyi Nottingham Forest · 0.85 xG chance 0–3
90' João Pedro Chelsea · 0.26 xG chance 1–3

The shots behind it

Chelsea Nottingham Forest

Shots: 21; 6
On target: 5; 4
Inside the box: 12; 6
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.34
Open play xG: 0.85; 1.15
Set-piece xG: 0.30; 0.08
Penalties: 1; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.14 for Chelsea.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

27 shots · 4.02 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Chelsea

1.59 xG created 1.33 xGA

W 3.92 created, 0.88 conceded against Aston Villa
L 1.43 created, 1.42 conceded against Newcastle United
L 1.11 created, 0.98 conceded against Everton
L 1.14 created, 2.29 conceded against Manchester City
L 1.57 created, 0.29 conceded against Manchester United
L 0.37 created, 2.14 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion

Nottingham Forest

1.10 xG created 0.99 xGA

D 0.97 created, 2.02 conceded against Manchester City
D 0.71 created, 0.67 conceded against Fulham
W 1.48 created, 1.14 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
D 1.15 created, 1.02 conceded against Aston Villa
W 1.19 created, 0.36 conceded against Burnley
W 1.10 created, 0.70 conceded against Sunderland

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Chelsea: 1 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Nottingham Forest 0:3 Chelsea 18/10/2025 xG 2.35 – 1.67

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.