Nottingham Forest 4:1 Burnley: xG & match report · Premier League

Sunday, 19/04/2026 at 15:00

Full time

Match report · Premier League

Nottingham Forest Home 1.19 xG · 10 shots

Burnley Away 0.36 xG · 4 shots

41 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

45' Zian Flemming Burnley · 0.18 xG chance 0–1
63' Morgan Gibbs-White Nottingham Forest · 0.27 xG chance 1–1
69' Morgan Gibbs-White Nottingham Forest · 0.07 xG chance 2–1
77' Morgan Gibbs-White Nottingham Forest · 0.04 xG chance 3–1
90' Igor Jesus Nottingham Forest · 0.20 xG chance 4–1

The shots behind it

Nottingham Forest Burnley

Shots: 10; 4
On target: 4; 3
Inside the box: 8; 3
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.09
Open play xG: 0.99; 0.26
Set-piece xG: 0.20; 0.09
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.35 for Burnley.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

14 shots · 1.54 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Nottingham Forest
Burnley
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Nottingham Forest

1.08 xG created 1.32 xGA

L 1.26 created, 1.76 conceded against Liverpool
L 0.93 created, 1.31 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion
D 0.97 created, 2.02 conceded against Manchester City
D 0.71 created, 0.67 conceded against Fulham
W 1.48 created, 1.14 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
D 1.15 created, 1.02 conceded against Aston Villa

Burnley

0.97 xG created 2.16 xGA

D 0.78 created, 1.88 conceded against Chelsea
L 0.97 created, 1.94 conceded against Brentford
L 0.79 created, 1.10 conceded against Everton
D 1.14 created, 2.88 conceded against Bournemouth
L 1.24 created, 3.23 conceded against Fulham
L 0.88 created, 1.93 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Nottingham Forest: 0 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Burnley 1:1 Nottingham Forest 20/09/2025 xG 0.85 – 1.10

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.