Burnley 1:1 Nottingham Forest: xG & match report · Premier League

Saturday, 20/09/2025 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Premier League

Burnley Home 0.85 xG · 12 shots

Nottingham Forest Away 1.10 xG · 17 shots

11 Nottingham Forest had the better chances, but it finished level

Goals

2' Neco Williams Nottingham Forest · 0.02 xG chance 0–1
20' Jaidon Anthony Burnley · 0.09 xG chance 1–1

The shots behind it

Burnley Nottingham Forest

Shots: 12; 17
On target: 5; 8
Inside the box: 9; 9
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.07
Open play xG: 0.34; 0.99
Set-piece xG: 0.59; 0.13
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.90 for Burnley and 1.10 for Nottingham Forest.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

29 shots · 2.05 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Burnley
Nottingham Forest
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Burnley

0.82 xG created 2.32 xGA

L 0.94 created, 2.32 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
W 1.00 created, 0.77 conceded against Sunderland
L 1.20 created, 3.54 conceded against Manchester United
L 0.13 created, 2.65 conceded against Liverpool

Nottingham Forest

0.93 xG created 1.72 xGA

W 1.86 created, 1.50 conceded against Brentford
D 0.93 created, 1.10 conceded against Crystal Palace
L 0.73 created, 2.42 conceded against West Ham United
L 0.20 created, 1.84 conceded against Arsenal

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.