Manchester City 2:2 Nottingham Forest: xG & match report · Premier League

Wednesday, 04/03/2026 at 20:30

Full time

Match report · Premier League

Manchester City Home 2.02 xG · 21 shots

Nottingham Forest Away 0.97 xG · 9 shots

22 Manchester City had the better chances, but it finished level

Goals

31' Antoine Semenyo Manchester City · 0.16 xG chance 1–0
56' Morgan Gibbs-White Nottingham Forest · 0.31 xG chance 1–1
62' Rodri Manchester City · 0.26 xG chance 2–1
76' Elliot Anderson Nottingham Forest · 0.02 xG chance 2–2

The shots behind it

Manchester City Nottingham Forest

Shots: 21; 9
On target: 7; 4
Inside the box: 16; 6
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.11
Open play xG: 1.35; 0.68
Set-piece xG: 0.66; 0.30
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.02 for Manchester City and 0.97 for Nottingham Forest.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

30 shots · 2.99 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Manchester City
Nottingham Forest
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Manchester City

1.72 xG created 1.04 xGA

W 0.92 created, 0.59 conceded against Wolverhampton
D 1.99 created, 0.97 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
W 2.91 created, 1.21 conceded against Liverpool
W 1.37 created, 1.42 conceded against Fulham
W 1.35 created, 0.58 conceded against Newcastle United
W 1.77 created, 1.47 conceded against Leeds United

Nottingham Forest

1.19 xG created 1.61 xGA

W 0.76 created, 1.76 conceded against Brentford
D 0.49 created, 1.92 conceded against Crystal Palace
L 1.13 created, 2.50 conceded against Leeds United
D 2.55 created, 0.42 conceded against Wolverhampton
L 1.26 created, 1.76 conceded against Liverpool
L 0.93 created, 1.31 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Manchester City: 1 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Nottingham Forest 1:2 Manchester City 27/12/2025 xG 0.59 – 1.39

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.