Nottingham Forest 1:2 Manchester City: xG & match report · Premier League

Saturday, 27/12/2025 at 13:30

Full time

Match report · Premier League

Nottingham Forest Home 0.59 xG · 7 shots

Manchester City Away 1.39 xG · 16 shots

12 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

48' Tijjani Reijnders Manchester City · 0.40 xG chance 0–1
54' Omari Hutchinson Nottingham Forest · 0.29 xG chance 1–1
83' Rayan Cherki Manchester City · 0.08 xG chance 1–2

The shots behind it

Nottingham Forest Manchester City

Shots: 7; 16
On target: 2; 5
Inside the box: 5; 9
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.09
Open play xG: 0.50; 1.25
Set-piece xG: 0.05; 0.13
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.55 for Nottingham Forest and 1.39 for Manchester City.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

23 shots · 1.93 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Nottingham Forest
Manchester City
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Nottingham Forest

1.04 xG created 1.31 xGA

W 1.58 created, 1.93 conceded against Liverpool
L 0.89 created, 2.00 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion
W 0.74 created, 0.91 conceded against Wolverhampton
L 0.53 created, 1.12 conceded against Everton
W 1.91 created, 0.37 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
L 0.60 created, 1.50 conceded against Fulham

Manchester City

2.25 xG created 1.38 xGA

L 2.49 created, 2.24 conceded against Newcastle United
W 3.10 created, 1.54 conceded against Leeds United
W 2.17 created, 0.91 conceded against Fulham
W 2.42 created, 0.71 conceded against Sunderland
W 1.19 created, 1.88 conceded against Crystal Palace
W 2.10 created, 0.98 conceded against West Ham United

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.