xgEdge

Sunday, 10/05/2026 at 15:00

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Match report · Premier League

Nottingham Forest 1:1 Newcastle United

Nottingham Forest Home 1.10 xG · 17 shots
Newcastle United Away 1.48 xG · 16 shots
11 Newcastle United had the better chances, but it finished level

Goals

  1. 74' Harvey Barnes Newcastle United · 0.44 xG chance 0–1
  2. 88' Elliot Anderson Nottingham Forest · 0.15 xG chance 1–1

The shots behind it

Nottingham Forest Newcastle United
Shots
17
16
On target
6
6
Inside the box
11
7
xG per shot
0.07
0.10
Open play xG
1.01
1.42
Set-piece xG
0.14
0.16
Penalties
—
—
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.15 for Nottingham Forest and 1.54 for Newcastle United.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

Newcastle United · Harvey Barnes · 74' · Goal · 14 m · 0.44 xG Newcastle United · William Osula · 43' · No goal · 11 m · 0.40 xG Newcastle United · Bruno Guimarães · 62' · No goal · 14 m · 0.22 xG Nottingham Forest · Elliot Anderson · 88' · Goal · 5 m · 0.15 xG Nottingham Forest · Igor Jesus · 80' · No goal · 15 m · 0.14 xG Nottingham Forest · Jair · 34' · No goal · 8 m · 0.11 xG Newcastle United · Bruno Guimarães · 62' · No goal · 9 m · 0.11 xG Nottingham Forest · Igor Jesus · 46' · No goal · 3 m · 0.10 xG Nottingham Forest · Omari Hutchinson · 73' · No goal · 13 m · 0.09 xG Newcastle United · William Osula · 10' · No goal · 9 m · 0.08 xG Nottingham Forest · Ryan Yates · 83' · No goal · 13 m · 0.08 xG Nottingham Forest · Igor Jesus · 41' · No goal · 24 m · 0.07 xG Nottingham Forest · Taiwo Awoniyi · 58' · No goal · 14 m · 0.07 xG Nottingham Forest · Lorenzo Lucca · 90' · No goal · 8 m · 0.07 xG Newcastle United · Bruno Guimarães · 67' · No goal · 13 m · 0.06 xG Newcastle United · Jacob Ramsey · 72' · No goal · 20 m · 0.05 xG Nottingham Forest · James McAtee · 90' · No goal · 12 m · 0.05 xG Nottingham Forest · Dilane Bakwa · 17' · No goal · 12 m · 0.04 xG Newcastle United · William Osula · 27' · No goal · 20 m · 0.04 xG Nottingham Forest · Ryan Yates · 58' · No goal · 21 m · 0.04 xG Newcastle United · William Osula · 67' · No goal · 27 m · 0.04 xG Nottingham Forest · Ryan Yates · 90' · No goal · 19 m · 0.04 xG Nottingham Forest · Elliot Anderson · 23' · No goal · 26 m · 0.03 xG Nottingham Forest · Neco Williams · 28' · No goal · 21 m · 0.03 xG Newcastle United · Sandro Tonali · 47' · No goal · 25 m · 0.03 xG Newcastle United · Bruno Guimarães · 51' · No goal · 30 m · 0.03 xG Nottingham Forest · Igor Jesus · 18' · No goal · 8 m · 0.02 xG Newcastle United · Joelinton · 43' · No goal · 4 m · 0.02 xG Nottingham Forest · Elliot Anderson · 45' · No goal · 11 m · 0.02 xG Newcastle United · Sandro Tonali · 55' · No goal · 22 m · 0.02 xG Newcastle United · Joelinton · 72' · No goal · 22 m · 0.02 xG Newcastle United · Sandro Tonali · 21' · No goal · 30 m · 0.01 xG Newcastle United · Joelinton · 90' · No goal · 31 m · 0.01 xG

All shots

33 shots · 2.73 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

  • Nottingham Forest
  • Newcastle United
  • Filled = goal
  • Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match
Nottingham Forest

1.28 xG created 1.01 xGA

  • D 0.71 created, 0.67 conceded against Fulham
  • W 1.48 created, 1.14 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
  • D 1.15 created, 1.02 conceded against Aston Villa
  • W 1.19 created, 0.36 conceded against Burnley
  • W 1.10 created, 0.70 conceded against Sunderland
  • W 2.05 created, 2.15 conceded against Chelsea
Newcastle United

1.60 xG created 1.91 xGA

  • W 1.42 created, 1.43 conceded against Chelsea
  • L 1.27 created, 2.45 conceded against Sunderland
  • L 1.13 created, 2.56 conceded against Crystal Palace
  • L 1.59 created, 2.99 conceded against Bournemouth
  • L 1.00 created, 0.49 conceded against Arsenal
  • W 3.16 created, 1.53 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Nottingham Forest: 0 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.