Friday, 21/08/2026 at 21:00
Full timeArsenal 3:0 Coventry City
Arsenal were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 54%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was Coventry City's attack: 0.20 xG against 0.90 projected (−0.70).
Goals
- 15' Kai Havertz Arsenal · 0.25 xG chance 1–0
- 23' Bukayo Saka Arsenal · 0.54 xG chance 2–0
- 49' Martin Ødegaard Arsenal · 0.12 xG chance 3–0
The model against the result
- Arsenal
- 54% What happened
- Draw
- 29%
- Coventry City
- 18%
Data coverage The model has never seen one of these sides play. Every figure here rests on an exactly average stand-in for it, which is a guess in a projection's clothes.
Projected vs produced
Coventry City produced 0.70 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 20
- 4
- On target
- 6
- 1
- Inside the box
- 10
- 1
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 1.57
- 0.29
- Set-piece xG
- 0.27
- 0.00
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.80 for Arsenal and 0.28 for Coventry City.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
24 shots · 2.13 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Arsenal
- Coventry City
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.72 xG created 0.84 xGA
- L 1.62 created, 1.36 conceded against Manchester City
- W 0.49 created, 1.00 conceded against Newcastle United
- W 3.23 created, 0.37 conceded against Fulham
- W 1.18 created, 1.15 conceded against West Ham United
- W 1.29 created, 0.19 conceded against Burnley
- W 2.53 created, 0.98 conceded against Crystal Palace
No match with expected goals behind it yet.
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
9 opportunities flagged0 won9 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry City to win | 15.00 | +163.1% | Lost |
| Draw | 7.00 | +99.8% | Lost |
| Coventry City 2+ goals | 9.00 | +99.6% | Lost |
| Arsenal not to score | 11.00 | +87.2% | Lost |
| Arsenal at most 1 goal | 3.50 | +74.0% | Lost |
| Coventry City to score | 2.25 | +39.7% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.40 | +26.0% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 5.20 | +24.5% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 2.25 | +19.7% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 53.9% | 79.9% | −26.0 pp | 1.85 |
| Draw | 28.5% | 13.7% | +14.8 pp | 3.50 |
| Coventry City | 17.5% | 6.4% | +11.2 pp | 5.70 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal to score | 83.0% | 91.3% | −8.3 pp | 1.21 |
| Arsenal not to score | 17.0% | 8.7% | +8.3 pp | 5.88 |
| Coventry City to score | 62.1% | 41.1% | +21.0 pp | 1.61 |
| Coventry City not to score | 37.9% | 58.9% | −21.0 pp | 2.64 |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% | 41.1% | +12.1 pp | 1.88 |
| Both teams not to score | 46.8% | 58.9% | −12.1 pp | 2.14 |
| Arsenal 2+ goals | 50.3% | 73.1% | −22.9 pp | 1.99 |
| Arsenal at most 1 goal | 49.7% | 26.9% | +22.9 pp | 2.01 |
| Coventry City 2+ goals | 22.2% | 10.6% | +11.5 pp | 4.51 |
| Coventry City at most 1 goal | 77.8% | 89.4% | −11.5 pp | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.1% | 82.2% | −6.2 pp | 1.31 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23.9% | 17.8% | +6.2 pp | 4.18 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.5% | 61.5% | −14.0 pp | 2.11 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.5% | 38.5% | +14.0 pp | 1.90 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Arsenal sample
- 20 matches
- Coventry City sample
- 0 matches
- Computed
- 10 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 10 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- There is not a single played match in the database for Coventry City — the estimate for that side is the league average and nothing else.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.