xgEdge

Expected goals

Arsenal expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Premier League · after 5 matches · updated 1 Oct

Arsenal's attacking and defensive expected goals in Premier League 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Arsenal xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.70 xG per match
#6/20
Attack (xG per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Brighton & Hove Albion 2.31
#2 Manchester City 2.10
#3 Brentford 1.96
#4 Manchester United 1.93
#5 Sunderland 1.90
#6 Arsenal 1.70
#7 Liverpool 1.67
#8 Fulham 1.56
#9 Leeds United 1.56
#10 Ipswich Town 1.53
#11 Chelsea 1.47
#12 Everton 1.46
#13 Nottingham Forest 1.45
#14 Bournemouth 1.34
#15 Crystal Palace 1.25
#16 Hull City 1.10
#17 Newcastle United 1.07
#18 Tottenham Hotspur 1.00
#19 Coventry City 0.97
#20 Aston Villa 0.91
League avg
1.51
Total
8.48 5 matches
Defence
0.81 xGA per match
#1/20
Defence (xGA per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Arsenal 0.81
#2 Nottingham Forest 0.95
#3 Liverpool 1.22
#4 Brentford 1.26
#5 Leeds United 1.27
#6 Everton 1.39
#7 Bournemouth 1.39
#8 Manchester United 1.40
#9 Manchester City 1.45
#10 Hull City 1.48
#11 Tottenham Hotspur 1.56
#12 Coventry City 1.73
#13 Brighton & Hove Albion 1.74
#14 Sunderland 1.75
#15 Ipswich Town 1.75
#16 Fulham 1.77
#17 Chelsea 1.78
#18 Newcastle United 1.83
#19 Aston Villa 1.84
#20 Crystal Palace 1.89
League avg
1.51
Total
4.03 5 matches
xG difference
+0.89 xGD per match
#1/20
xG difference (xGD per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Arsenal +0.89
#2 Brentford +0.70
#3 Manchester City +0.65
#4 Brighton & Hove Albion +0.57
#5 Manchester United +0.53
#6 Nottingham Forest +0.50
#7 Liverpool +0.45
#8 Leeds United +0.29
#9 Sunderland +0.15
#10 Everton +0.08
#11 Bournemouth -0.05
#12 Fulham -0.21
#13 Ipswich Town -0.22
#14 Chelsea -0.31
#15 Hull City -0.37
#16 Tottenham Hotspur -0.56
#17 Crystal Palace -0.64
#18 Coventry City -0.75
#19 Newcastle United -0.76
#20 Aston Villa -0.94
League avg
0.00
Total
+4.45 5 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
2.07 xPts per match
#1/20
Expected points (xPts per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Arsenal 2.07
#2 Manchester City 1.87
#3 Nottingham Forest 1.72
#4 Liverpool 1.69
#5 Brentford 1.66
#6 Brighton & Hove Albion 1.62
#7 Manchester United 1.60
#8 Leeds United 1.55
#9 Sunderland 1.47
#10 Everton 1.45
#11 Ipswich Town 1.41
#12 Bournemouth 1.39
#13 Tottenham Hotspur 1.17
#14 Fulham 1.17
#15 Chelsea 1.16
#16 Hull City 1.09
#17 Crystal Palace 0.95
#18 Aston Villa 0.90
#19 Coventry City 0.87
#20 Newcastle United 0.82
League avg
1.38
Total
10.36 vs 12 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 5 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Arsenal's underlying numbers are league-leading. They rank #1 for xG difference at +0.89 per match, built on high chance quality rather than about average shot volume. Their 8 goals are 0.48 below 8.48 xG, while 12 points are 1.64 above 10.36 xPts. After only 5 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 0.76 xG from penalties
8 8.48 -0.48 scored 0.48 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
4 4.03 -0.03 conceded 0.03 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
12 10.36 +1.64 1.64 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Arsenal are 0.48 goals below their xG after 5 matches.

Goals
8
xG
8.48
Gap
-0.48
Fri 21/08 Mon 31/08 Sun 06/09 Sat 12/09 Sat 19/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +1.12 +1.08 +1.03 +1.15 -0.48 +1.12 -0.04 -0.05 +0.12 -1.63 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Arsenal: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Fri 21/08 Coventry City 3 1.88 +1.12 +1.12
Mon 31/08 Aston Villa 1 1.04 -0.04 +1.08
Sun 06/09 Chelsea 2 2.05 -0.05 +1.03
Sat 12/09 Sunderland 2 1.88 +0.12 +1.15
Sat 19/09 Brighton & Hove Albion 0 1.63 -1.63 -0.48

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Arsenal xG trend

Current form +0.91 npxGD per match

All 5 matches with xG so far — the window fills at 6.

Out-created the opponent in 5 of 5 matches.

npxG · last 5
1.54
npxGA · last 5
0.63
-1 0 +1 +2 +1.52 Fri 21/08 +0.73 Mon 31/08 +1.76 Sun 06/09 +0.33 Sat 12/09 +0.23 Sat 19/09 +0.91 season avg
Arsenal: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Fri 21/08 Coventry City 1.80 0.28 +1.52 +1.52
Mon 31/08 Aston Villa 1.05 0.32 +0.73 +1.13
Sun 06/09 Chelsea 2.11 0.35 +1.76 +1.34
Sat 12/09 Sunderland 1.18 0.85 +0.33 +1.09
Sat 19/09 Brighton & Hove Albion 1.58 1.35 +0.23 +0.91

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.54 npxG and 0.63 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 13 hardest of 20 in Premier League
−0.03 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.03 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 13 hardest of 20

  1. Brighton & Hove Albion Away +0.25
  2. Sunderland Away +0.07
  3. Chelsea Home 0.00
  4. Aston Villa Away −0.26
  5. Coventry City Home −0.22

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Arsenal shots and chance quality

Average volume, high quality. Arsenal take 13.0 shots a match (league 13.9) at 0.12 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #13 in Premier League for volume and #5 for quality. 71% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%), and set pieces produce 23% of their npxG (league 25%).

Attack

Shot volume
13.0 shots per match
#13/20
Shot volume (shots per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Manchester United 22.6
#2 Brighton & Hove Albion 19.0
#3 Nottingham Forest 16.4
#4 Brentford 16.2
#5 Everton 16.0
#6 Liverpool 15.2
=7 Chelsea 14.4
=7 Fulham 14.4
#9 Tottenham Hotspur 14.2
=10 Bournemouth 13.6
=10 Manchester City 13.6
#12 Sunderland 13.2
#13 Arsenal 13.0
=14 Hull City 12.2
=14 Leeds United 12.2
#16 Ipswich Town 11.6
#17 Crystal Palace 10.6
=18 Coventry City 10.2
=18 Newcastle United 10.2
#20 Aston Villa 9.6
League avg
13.9
Total
65 shots from 5 matches
Chance quality
0.12 npxG per shot
#5/20
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Manchester City 0.14
#2 Sunderland 0.13
#3 Leeds United 0.13
#4 Ipswich Town 0.13
#5 Arsenal 0.12
#6 Crystal Palace 0.12
#7 Brentford 0.12
#8 Brighton & Hove Albion 0.11
#9 Fulham 0.11
#10 Bournemouth 0.11
#11 Coventry City 0.10
#12 Chelsea 0.10
#13 Everton 0.09
#14 Aston Villa 0.09
#15 Liverpool 0.09
#16 Hull City 0.09
#17 Newcastle United 0.08
#18 Manchester United 0.08
#19 Nottingham Forest 0.07
#20 Tottenham Hotspur 0.07
League avg
0.10
Total
7.72 npxG from 65 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
10.6 shots per match
=2/20
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Nottingham Forest 10.4
=2 Arsenal 10.6
=2 Manchester United 10.6
#4 Bournemouth 10.8
=5 Brighton & Hove Albion 11.6
=5 Liverpool 11.6
#7 Manchester City 11.8
#8 Sunderland 12.0
#9 Brentford 13.4
=10 Everton 13.8
=10 Hull City 13.8
#12 Chelsea 14.4
#13 Leeds United 14.6
#14 Tottenham Hotspur 15.2
#15 Aston Villa 16.2
#16 Fulham 16.6
#17 Crystal Palace 16.8
#18 Ipswich Town 17.2
#19 Coventry City 17.4
#20 Newcastle United 19.6
League avg
13.9
Total
53 shots allowed from 5 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.06 npxGA per shot
#1/20
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Arsenal 0.06
#2 Leeds United 0.08
#3 Newcastle United 0.08
#4 Coventry City 0.08
#5 Liverpool 0.09
#6 Brentford 0.09
#7 Tottenham Hotspur 0.09
#8 Hull City 0.09
#9 Fulham 0.10
#10 Everton 0.10
#11 Nottingham Forest 0.10
#12 Ipswich Town 0.10
#13 Crystal Palace 0.10
#14 Aston Villa 0.11
#15 Bournemouth 0.13
#16 Sunderland 0.13
#17 Manchester United 0.13
#18 Chelsea 0.13
#19 Manchester City 0.14
#20 Brighton & Hove Albion 0.16
League avg
0.10
Total
3.15 npxGA from 53 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

71% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 46 of 65 shots over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

49% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 26 of 53 shots allowed over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

77% open play · 23% set pieces

League avg 25% set pieces

From 1.8 of 7.8 npxG over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

59% open play · 41% set pieces

League avg 25% set pieces

From 1.3 of 3.2 npxG allowed over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Arsenal home and away xG

Arsenal per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home only 2 matches with xG Away
Matches 2 3
xG / match 1.97 1.52
xGA / match 0.30 1.15
xGD / match +1.67 +0.37
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 2.63 1.70

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Arsenal match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
5
xG / match
1.70
xGA / match
0.81
xGD / match
+0.89
Points
12 of 15
  1. Sat 19/09 Brighton & Hove Albion A xG 1.63 xGA 1.31 xGD +0.32
  2. Sat 12/09 Sunderland A Weakest underlying xG 1.88 P xGA 1.80 P xGD +0.08
  3. Sun 06/09 Chelsea H xG 2.05 xGA 0.39 xGD +1.66
  4. Mon 31/08 Aston Villa A xG 1.04 xGA 0.33 xGD +0.71
  5. Fri 21/08 Coventry City H Best underlying xG 1.88 xGA 0.20 xGD +1.68

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Arsenal in Premier League

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

Mind if we count your visit?

We use Google Analytics only to see how many people visit and which pages they read. It loads after you allow it — no ads, no tracking across other sites. What we collect