Arsenal 2:1 Chelsea: xG & match report · Premier League

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 17:30

Full time

Match report · Premier League

Arsenal Home 2.05 xG · 16 shots

Chelsea Away 0.39 xG · 13 shots

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

Arsenal were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 51%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Arsenal's attack: 2.05 xG against 1.52 projected (+0.53). Chelsea produced 0.39 xG against 0.88 projected (−0.49).

Goals

2' Morgan Rogers Chelsea · 0.02 xG chance 0–1
25' Kai Havertz Arsenal · 0.02 xG chance 1–1
50' Martin Ødegaard Arsenal · 0.57 xG chance 2–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Arsenal: 51% What happened
Draw: 30%
Chelsea: 19%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Arsenal 1.52 2.05 +0.53

Chelsea 0.88 0.39 -0.49

Arsenal produced 0.53 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Arsenal Chelsea

Shots: 16; 13
On target: 9; 5
Inside the box: 13; 5
xG per shot: 0.13; 0.03
Open play xG: 1.42; 0.27
Set-piece xG: 0.67; 0.07
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.11 for Arsenal and 0.35 for Chelsea.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

29 shots · 2.43 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Arsenal
Chelsea
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Arsenal

1.86 xG created 0.54 xGA

W 3.23 created, 0.37 conceded against Fulham
W 1.18 created, 1.15 conceded against West Ham United
W 1.29 created, 0.19 conceded against Burnley
W 2.53 created, 0.98 conceded against Crystal Palace
W 1.88 created, 0.20 conceded against Coventry City
W 1.04 created, 0.33 conceded against Aston Villa

Chelsea

1.56 xG created 1.42 xGA

L 2.15 created, 2.05 conceded against Nottingham Forest
D 0.50 created, 0.56 conceded against Liverpool
W 0.63 created, 1.27 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
L 0.89 created, 1.84 conceded against Sunderland
W 2.24 created, 1.33 conceded against Fulham
W 2.97 created, 1.49 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Arsenal: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Arsenal against Chelsea before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.10	+17.6%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	4.33	+14.8%	Lost
Draw	3.80	+14.0%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Arsenal	51.2%	55.4%	−4.2 pp	1.95
Draw	30.0%	24.8%	+5.2 pp	3.33
Chelsea	18.8%	19.8%	−1.0 pp	5.31

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	51.5%	52.0%	−0.5 pp	1.94
Both teams not to score	48.5%	48.0%	+0.5 pp	2.06
Over 1.5 goals	73.5%	78.0%	−4.5 pp	1.36
Under 1.5 goals	26.5%	22.0%	+4.5 pp	3.77
Over 2.5 goals	44.0%	54.9%	−10.9 pp	2.27
Under 2.5 goals	56.0%	45.1%	+10.9 pp	1.79

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Arsenal sample: 20 matches
Chelsea sample: 20 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.