Monday, 24/08/2026 at 21:00
Full timeFulham 2:3 Chelsea
Fulham were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. Chelsea won 3–2. The biggest difference was Chelsea's attack: 2.24 xG against 1.17 projected (+1.07).
Goals
- 1' João Pedro Chelsea · 0.26 xG chance 0–1
- 23' Joshua King Fulham · 0.06 xG chance 1–1
- 41' Morgan Rogers Chelsea · 0.52 xG chance 1–2
- 49' Cole Palmer Chelsea · 0.09 xG chance 1–3
- 54' Gonzalo García Fulham · 0.58 xG chance 2–3
The model against the result
- Fulham
- 41%
- Draw
- 31%
- Chelsea
- 28% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Chelsea produced 1.07 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 14
- 18
- On target
- 6
- 6
- Inside the box
- 7
- 13
- xG per shot
- 0.10
- 0.09
- Open play xG
- 1.40
- 1.34
- Set-piece xG
- 0.06
- 0.28
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.45 for Fulham and 1.70 for Chelsea.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
32 shots · 3.08 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Fulham
- Chelsea
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.18 xG created 1.35 xGA
- D 0.77 created, 1.43 conceded against Brentford
- W 1.18 created, 0.93 conceded against Aston Villa
- L 0.37 created, 3.23 conceded against Arsenal
- L 1.33 created, 0.82 conceded against Bournemouth
- D 1.59 created, 1.40 conceded against Wolverhampton
- W 1.81 created, 0.31 conceded against Newcastle United
1.02 xG created 1.36 xGA
- L 1.57 created, 0.29 conceded against Manchester United
- L 0.37 created, 2.14 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion
- L 2.15 created, 2.05 conceded against Nottingham Forest
- D 0.50 created, 0.56 conceded against Liverpool
- W 0.63 created, 1.27 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
- L 0.89 created, 1.84 conceded against Sunderland
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged2 won6 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham to win | 3.90 | +58.4% | Lost |
| Chelsea not to score | 5.50 | +56.0% | Lost |
| Chelsea at most 1 goal | 2.00 | +34.2% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.00 | +23.7% | Lost |
| Fulham 2+ goals | 2.75 | +16.1% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | +13.0% | Lost |
| Fulham to score | 1.36 | +6.8% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.50 | +3.4% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham | 40.6% | 24.4% | +16.3 pp | 2.46 |
| Draw | 30.9% | 23.8% | +7.2 pp | 3.23 |
| Chelsea | 28.5% | 51.9% | −23.4 pp | 3.51 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham to score | 78.3% | 68.7% | +9.6 pp | 1.28 |
| Fulham not to score | 21.7% | 31.3% | −9.6 pp | 4.61 |
| Chelsea to score | 71.6% | 82.8% | −11.2 pp | 1.40 |
| Chelsea not to score | 28.4% | 17.2% | +11.2 pp | 3.52 |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | 57.7% | +0.3 pp | 1.73 |
| Both teams not to score | 42.1% | 42.3% | −0.3 pp | 2.38 |
| Fulham 2+ goals | 42.2% | 33.7% | +8.5 pp | 2.37 |
| Fulham at most 1 goal | 57.8% | 66.3% | −8.5 pp | 1.73 |
| Chelsea 2+ goals | 32.9% | 53.7% | −20.7 pp | 3.04 |
| Chelsea at most 1 goal | 67.1% | 46.3% | +20.7 pp | 1.49 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.0% | 78.9% | −1.9 pp | 1.30 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23.0% | 21.1% | +1.9 pp | 4.35 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.6% | 56.9% | −8.3 pp | 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.4% | 43.1% | +8.3 pp | 1.95 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Fulham sample
- 20 matches
- Chelsea sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 7 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 7 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.