xgEdge

Expected goals

Chelsea expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Premier League · after 5 matches · updated 1 Oct

Chelsea's attacking and defensive expected goals in Premier League 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Chelsea xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.47 xG per match
#11/20
Attack (xG per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Brighton & Hove Albion 2.31
#2 Manchester City 2.10
#3 Brentford 1.96
#4 Manchester United 1.93
#5 Sunderland 1.90
#6 Arsenal 1.70
#7 Liverpool 1.67
#8 Fulham 1.56
#9 Leeds United 1.56
#10 Ipswich Town 1.53
#11 Chelsea 1.47
#12 Everton 1.46
#13 Nottingham Forest 1.45
#14 Bournemouth 1.34
#15 Crystal Palace 1.25
#16 Hull City 1.10
#17 Newcastle United 1.07
#18 Tottenham Hotspur 1.00
#19 Coventry City 0.97
#20 Aston Villa 0.91
League avg
1.51
Total
7.34 5 matches
Defence
1.78 xGA per match
#17/20
Defence (xGA per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Arsenal 0.81
#2 Nottingham Forest 0.95
#3 Liverpool 1.22
#4 Brentford 1.26
#5 Leeds United 1.27
#6 Everton 1.39
#7 Bournemouth 1.39
#8 Manchester United 1.40
#9 Manchester City 1.45
#10 Hull City 1.48
#11 Tottenham Hotspur 1.56
#12 Coventry City 1.73
#13 Brighton & Hove Albion 1.74
#14 Sunderland 1.75
#15 Ipswich Town 1.75
#16 Fulham 1.77
#17 Chelsea 1.78
#18 Newcastle United 1.83
#19 Aston Villa 1.84
#20 Crystal Palace 1.89
League avg
1.51
Total
8.90 5 matches
xG difference
-0.31 xGD per match
#14/20
xG difference (xGD per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Arsenal +0.89
#2 Brentford +0.70
#3 Manchester City +0.65
#4 Brighton & Hove Albion +0.57
#5 Manchester United +0.53
#6 Nottingham Forest +0.50
#7 Liverpool +0.45
#8 Leeds United +0.29
#9 Sunderland +0.15
#10 Everton +0.08
#11 Bournemouth -0.05
#12 Fulham -0.21
#13 Ipswich Town -0.22
#14 Chelsea -0.31
#15 Hull City -0.37
#16 Tottenham Hotspur -0.56
#17 Crystal Palace -0.64
#18 Coventry City -0.75
#19 Newcastle United -0.76
#20 Aston Villa -0.94
League avg
0.00
Total
-1.56 5 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.16 xPts per match
#15/20
Expected points (xPts per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Arsenal 2.07
#2 Manchester City 1.87
#3 Nottingham Forest 1.72
#4 Liverpool 1.69
#5 Brentford 1.66
#6 Brighton & Hove Albion 1.62
#7 Manchester United 1.60
#8 Leeds United 1.55
#9 Sunderland 1.47
#10 Everton 1.45
#11 Ipswich Town 1.41
#12 Bournemouth 1.39
#13 Tottenham Hotspur 1.17
#14 Fulham 1.17
#15 Chelsea 1.16
#16 Hull City 1.09
#17 Crystal Palace 0.95
#18 Aston Villa 0.90
#19 Coventry City 0.87
#20 Newcastle United 0.82
League avg
1.38
Total
5.82 vs 7 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 5 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Chelsea's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Premier League. They rank #14 for xG difference at -0.31 per match, from about average shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 10 goals are 2.66 above 7.34 xG, while 7 points are 1.18 above 5.82 xPts. After only 5 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 0.50 xG from penalties
10 7.34 +2.66 scored 2.66 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
12 8.90 +3.10 conceded 3.10 more than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
7 5.82 +1.18 1.18 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Chelsea are 2.66 goals above their xG after 5 matches. The gap was widest at +3.49, against Hull City on Sat 12/09.

Goals
10
xG
7.34
Gap
+2.66
Mon 24/08 Sun 30/08 Sun 06/09 Sat 12/09 Fri 18/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +0.76 +1.79 +2.40 +3.49 +2.66 +0.76 +1.03 +0.61 +1.09 -0.83 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Chelsea: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Mon 24/08 Fulham 3 2.24 +0.76 +0.76
Sun 30/08 Brighton & Hove Albion 4 2.97 +1.03 +1.79
Sun 06/09 Arsenal 1 0.39 +0.61 +2.40
Sat 12/09 Hull City 2 0.91 +1.09 +3.49
Fri 18/09 Brentford 0 0.83 -0.83 +2.66

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Chelsea xG trend

Current form -0.56 npxGD per match

All 5 matches with xG so far — the window fills at 6.

Out-created the opponent in 2 of 5 matches. The worst was against Brentford on Fri 18/09 (-2.07).

npxG · last 5
1.37
npxGA · last 5
1.93
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +0.25 Mon 24/08 +1.40 Sun 30/08 -1.76 Sun 06/09 -0.62 Sat 12/09 -2.07 Fri 18/09 -0.56 season avg
Chelsea: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Mon 24/08 Fulham 1.70 1.45 +0.25 +0.25
Sun 30/08 Brighton & Hove Albion 3.07 1.67 +1.40 +0.82
Sun 06/09 Arsenal 0.35 2.11 -1.76 -0.04
Sat 12/09 Hull City 0.89 1.51 -0.62 -0.18
Fri 18/09 Brentford 0.83 2.90 -2.07 -0.56

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.37 npxG and 1.93 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 3 hardest of 20 in Premier League
+0.11 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.11 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 3 hardest of 20

  1. Brentford Away +0.01
  2. Hull City Home −0.14
  3. Arsenal Away +0.43
  4. Brighton & Hove Albion Home +0.25
  5. Fulham Away −0.02

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Chelsea shots and chance quality

Average volume, average quality. Chelsea take 14.4 shots a match (league 13.9) at 0.10 npxG a shot (league 0.10), =7 in Premier League for volume and #12 for quality. 65% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%), and set pieces produce 28% of their npxG (league 25%).

Attack

Shot volume
14.4 shots per match
=7/20
Shot volume (shots per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Manchester United 22.6
#2 Brighton & Hove Albion 19.0
#3 Nottingham Forest 16.4
#4 Brentford 16.2
#5 Everton 16.0
#6 Liverpool 15.2
=7 Chelsea 14.4
=7 Fulham 14.4
#9 Tottenham Hotspur 14.2
=10 Bournemouth 13.6
=10 Manchester City 13.6
#12 Sunderland 13.2
#13 Arsenal 13.0
=14 Hull City 12.2
=14 Leeds United 12.2
#16 Ipswich Town 11.6
#17 Crystal Palace 10.6
=18 Coventry City 10.2
=18 Newcastle United 10.2
#20 Aston Villa 9.6
League avg
13.9
Total
72 shots from 5 matches
Chance quality
0.10 npxG per shot
#12/20
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Manchester City 0.14
#2 Sunderland 0.13
#3 Leeds United 0.13
#4 Ipswich Town 0.13
#5 Arsenal 0.12
#6 Crystal Palace 0.12
#7 Brentford 0.12
#8 Brighton & Hove Albion 0.11
#9 Fulham 0.11
#10 Bournemouth 0.11
#11 Coventry City 0.10
#12 Chelsea 0.10
#13 Everton 0.09
#14 Aston Villa 0.09
#15 Liverpool 0.09
#16 Hull City 0.09
#17 Newcastle United 0.08
#18 Manchester United 0.08
#19 Nottingham Forest 0.07
#20 Tottenham Hotspur 0.07
League avg
0.10
Total
6.84 npxG from 72 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
14.4 shots per match
#12/20
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Nottingham Forest 10.4
=2 Arsenal 10.6
=2 Manchester United 10.6
#4 Bournemouth 10.8
=5 Brighton & Hove Albion 11.6
=5 Liverpool 11.6
#7 Manchester City 11.8
#8 Sunderland 12.0
#9 Brentford 13.4
=10 Everton 13.8
=10 Hull City 13.8
#12 Chelsea 14.4
#13 Leeds United 14.6
#14 Tottenham Hotspur 15.2
#15 Aston Villa 16.2
#16 Fulham 16.6
#17 Crystal Palace 16.8
#18 Ipswich Town 17.2
#19 Coventry City 17.4
#20 Newcastle United 19.6
League avg
13.9
Total
72 shots allowed from 5 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.13 npxGA per shot
#18/20
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Arsenal 0.06
#2 Leeds United 0.08
#3 Newcastle United 0.08
#4 Coventry City 0.08
#5 Liverpool 0.09
#6 Brentford 0.09
#7 Tottenham Hotspur 0.09
#8 Hull City 0.09
#9 Fulham 0.10
#10 Everton 0.10
#11 Nottingham Forest 0.10
#12 Ipswich Town 0.10
#13 Crystal Palace 0.10
#14 Aston Villa 0.11
#15 Bournemouth 0.13
#16 Sunderland 0.13
#17 Manchester United 0.13
#18 Chelsea 0.13
#19 Manchester City 0.14
#20 Brighton & Hove Albion 0.16
League avg
0.10
Total
9.64 npxGA from 72 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

65% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 47 of 72 shots over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

71% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 51 of 72 shots allowed over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

72% open play · 28% set pieces

League avg 25% set pieces

From 1.8 of 6.7 npxG over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

66% open play · 34% set pieces

League avg 25% set pieces

From 3.3 of 9.6 npxG allowed over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Chelsea home and away xG

Chelsea per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home only 2 matches with xG Away
Matches 2 3
xG / match 1.94 1.15
xGA / match 1.44 2.01
xGD / match +0.50 -0.86
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.62 0.86

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Chelsea match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
5
xG / match
1.47
xGA / match
1.78
xGD / match
-0.31
Points
7 of 15
  1. Fri 18/09 Brentford A Weakest underlying xG 0.83 xGA 2.65 xGD -1.82
  2. Sat 12/09 Hull City H xG 0.91 xGA 1.38 xGD -0.47
  3. Sun 06/09 Arsenal A xG 0.39 xGA 2.05 xGD -1.66
  4. Sun 30/08 Brighton & Hove Albion H Best underlying xG 2.97 xGA 1.49 xGD +1.48
  5. Mon 24/08 Fulham A xG 2.24 P xGA 1.33 xGD +0.91

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Chelsea in Premier League

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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