Chelsea

Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 16:00

6d 16h to kick-off

Match preview · Premier League

Chelsea 10th in Premier League Home 1.46 projected goals

Bournemouth 17th in Premier League Away 1.31 projected goals

Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00

What the model expects

expected goals

1.46 1.31

Chelsea Bournemouth

Chelsea: 39%
Draw: 30%
Bournemouth: 32%

The odds each result is fair at by the model's chance of it, with no margin in it
	Chelsea	Draw	Bournemouth
Fair odds	2.58	3.36	3.17

Total goals: 2.78
Over 2.5 goals: 54%
Both teams to score: 62%

Data coverage · full

Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Model vs market

The model sees an edge in 8 outcomes.

Chelsea

Model

38.7%

Market, margin removed

55.0%

Probability gap

−16.3 pp

Edge

−34.2%

Fair odds

2.58

Market odds

1.70 Bet365

Price at which a 5% edge begins

2.71

Bookmaker margin

6.9%
Draw

Model

29.7%

Market, margin removed

23.4%

Probability gap

+6.4 pp

Edge

+19.0%

Fair odds

3.36

Market odds

4.00 Bet365

Price at which a 5% edge begins

3.53

Bookmaker margin

6.9%
Bournemouth

Model

31.5%

Market, margin removed

21.6%

Probability gap

+10.0 pp

Edge

+36.7%

Fair odds

3.17

Market odds

4.33 Bet365

Price at which a 5% edge begins

3.33

Bookmaker margin

6.9%

Outcomes with value

8 of 17 rated

Goals by team Great value

Chelsea not to score

7.00 Bet365 · fair 4.86 +44.0%

model 20.6% · book 13.6% (no margin)

Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.

Goals by team Great value

Chelsea at most 1 goal

2.50 Bet365 · fair 1.79 +39.5%

model 55.8% · book 37.5% (no margin)

Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.

Match result Great value

Bournemouth to win

4.33 Bet365 · fair 3.17 +36.7%

model 31.5% · book 21.6% (no margin)

Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.

Goals by team Marginal

Bournemouth 2+ goals

2.63 Bet365 · fair 2.58 +1.6%

model 38.7% · book 35.5% (no margin)

Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.

Goals by team Marginal

Bournemouth to score

1.33 Bet365 · fair 1.32 +1.1%

model 75.9% · book 70.9% (no margin)

Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.

Goals Great value

Under 2.5 goals

2.63 Bet365 · fair 2.17 +20.8%

model 46.0% · book 36.4% (no margin)

No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).

Match result Great value

Draw

4.00 Bet365 · fair 3.36 +19.0%

model 29.7% · book 23.4% (no margin)

No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).

Goals Worth playing

Under 1.5 goals

5.50 Bet365 · fair 5.15 +6.8%

model 19.4% · book 17.2% (no margin)

No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).

No value Both teams not to score -4.9% Both teams to score -7.1% Over 1.5 goals -7.9% Bournemouth at most 1 goal -11.5% Chelsea to score -12.6% Over 2.5 goals -19.0% Bournemouth not to score -21.5% Chelsea 2+ goals -33.7% Chelsea to win -34.2%

Best opportunity

Chelsea not to score

odds · Bet365 7.00 value +44.0%

Model 20.6% vs. bookmaker 13.6%, margin removed.

Markets 8 / 17

Match result

Bournemouth to win model 31.5% · book 21.6% (no margin) +36.7% 4.33 fair 3.17

Great value

Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.

Draw model 29.7% · book 23.4% (no margin) +19.0% 4.00 fair 3.36

Great value

No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).

Goals

Under 2.5 goals model 46.0% · book 36.4% (no margin) +20.8% 2.63 fair 2.17

Great value

No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).

Under 1.5 goals model 19.4% · book 17.2% (no margin) +6.8% 5.50 fair 5.15

Worth playing

No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).

Goals by team

Chelsea not to score model 20.6% · book 13.6% (no margin) +44.0% 7.00 fair 4.86

Great value

Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.

Chelsea at most 1 goal model 55.8% · book 37.5% (no margin) +39.5% 2.50 fair 1.79

Great value

Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.

Bournemouth 2+ goals model 38.7% · book 35.5% (no margin) +1.6% 2.63 fair 2.58

Marginal

Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.

Bournemouth to score model 75.9% · book 70.9% (no margin) +1.1% 1.33 fair 1.32

Marginal

Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.

Show every rated outcome

Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →

The model's case

Why the model leans Chelsea

39% Chelsea to win

Attack: 10th vs 4th; Chelsea attack v Bournemouth defence
Defence: 11th vs 9th; Chelsea defence v Bournemouth attack
Recent xG form: -0.42 vs -0.17; xGD per match, last 6
Projected goals: 1.46 – 1.31; Chelsea v Bournemouth

How the model arrived here →

Squad news

From Fantasy Premier League

14 listed

Robert Lynch Sánchez 0% chance

Goalkeeper · Has joined Como on loan for the rest of the season
Marc Guiu Paz 0% chance

Forward · Has joined RB Leipzig permanently
Dário Essugo 0% chance

Midfielder · Has joined RC Strasbourg on loan for the rest of the season
Trevoh Chalobah 0% chance

Defender · Has joined Como permanently
Emmanuel Emegha 0% chance

Forward · Hamstring injury - Expected back 10 Oct
Benoît Badiashile Mukinayi 0% chance

Defender · Has joined Napoli on loan for the rest of the season
Filip Jörgensen 0% chance

Goalkeeper · Has joined RC Strasbourg on loan for the rest of the season
Mamadou Sarr 0% chance

Defender · Has joined Real Sociedad on loan for the rest of the season
Moisés Caicedo 50% chance

Midfielder · Calf injury - 50% chance of playing
Marco Palestra 50% chance

Defender · Thigh injury - 50% chance of playing
João Pedro 75% chance

Forward · Knee injury - 75% chance of playing
Cole Palmer 75% chance

Midfielder · Muscular injury - 75% chance of playing
Reece James 75% chance

Defender · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
Jamie Bynoe-Gittens 75% chance

Midfielder · Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing

Bournemouth

7 listed

Justin Kluivert 0% chance

Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
Junior Kroupi 0% chance

Midfielder · Foot injury - Expected back 7 Nov
Will Dennis 0% chance

Goalkeeper · Has joined MK Dons permanently
Veljko Milosavljevic 0% chance

Defender · Thigh injury - Unknown return date
Julián Araujo Zúñiga 0% chance

Defender · Thigh injury - Unknown return date
Amine Adli 0% chance

Midfielder · Calf injury - Unknown return date
Enes Ünal 0% chance

Forward · Has joined Getafe permanently

The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.

Team comparison

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.

Overview: Chelsea and Bournemouth compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Chelsea	Bournemouth
xG / match	(better) 1.47 · 11th	1.34 · 14th
xGA / match	1.78 · 17th	(better) 1.39 · 7th
xGD / match	-0.31 · 14th	(better) -0.05 · 11th
xPts / match	1.16 · 15th	(better) 1.39 · 12th
Last 6 xGD / match	-0.42	(better) -0.17

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Attack: Chelsea and Bournemouth compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Chelsea	Bournemouth
xG / match	(better) 1.47 · 11th	1.34 · 14th
npxG / match	1.37	(better) 1.48
Shots / match	(better) 14.4 · joint 7th	13.6 · joint 10th
npxG / shot	0.10 · 12th	(better) 0.11 · 10th

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Defence: Chelsea and Bournemouth compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Chelsea	Bournemouth
xGA / match	1.78 · 17th	(better) 1.39 · 7th
Shots faced / match	14.4 · 12th	(better) 10.8 · 4th
npxGA / shot	0.13 · 18th	(better) 0.13 · 15th

The last 6 matches, per match.

Form: Chelsea and Bournemouth compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Chelsea	Bournemouth
Last 6 xG / match	(better) 1.37	1.28
Last 6 xGA / match	1.79	(better) 1.45
Last 6 xGD / match	-0.42	(better) -0.17

The scorelines behind the model's numbers

No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.

Chelsea clean sheet: 24%
Chelsea 2+ goals: 44%
Under 2.5 goals: 46%
Both teams to score: no: 38%

Most likely scorelines

1:1: 14.8%
2:1: 10.1%
1:2: 9.0%

Value calculator

Check your bookmaker's price

The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.

How value is calculated

Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.

Nothing you type is remembered.

Open the calculator

Match result

Chelsea to win

38.7% 2.58 —

Draw

29.7% 3.36 —

Bournemouth to win

31.5% 3.17 —

Goals

Over 1.5 goals

80.6% 1.24 —

Under 1.5 goals

19.4% 5.15 —

Over 2.5 goals

54.0% 1.85 —

Under 2.5 goals

46.0% 2.17 —

Both teams to score

62.0% 1.61 —

Both teams not to score

38.0% 2.63 —

Team goals — Chelsea

Chelsea to score

79.4% 1.26 —

Chelsea not to score

20.6% 4.86 —

Chelsea 2+ goals

44.2% 2.26 —

Chelsea at most 1 goal

55.8% 1.79 —

Team goals — Bournemouth

Bournemouth to score

75.9% 1.32 —

Bournemouth not to score

24.1% 4.14 —

Bournemouth 2+ goals

38.7% 2.58 —

Bournemouth at most 1 goal

61.3% 1.63 —

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Chelsea sample: 20 matches
Bournemouth sample: 20 matches
Home xG sample · Chelsea: 2 matches
Away xG sample · Bournemouth: 2 matches
Computed: Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Odds updated: 1 minute ago

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Chelsea

1.37 xG created 1.79 xGA

L 0.89 created, 1.84 conceded against Sunderland
W 2.24 created, 1.33 conceded against Fulham
W 2.97 created, 1.49 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion
L 0.39 created, 2.05 conceded against Arsenal
D 0.91 created, 1.38 conceded against Hull City
L 0.83 created, 2.65 conceded against Brentford

Bournemouth

1.28 xG created 1.45 xGA

D 0.95 created, 1.73 conceded against Nottingham Forest
L 0.65 created, 2.25 conceded against Manchester City
D 2.16 created, 1.84 conceded against Everton
D 1.37 created, 0.71 conceded against Newcastle United
D 1.75 created, 0.50 conceded against Brentford
L 0.79 created, 1.65 conceded against Liverpool

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

0 won · 2 drawn · 0 lost

What the model expects

Model vs market

Chelsea

Draw

Bournemouth

Outcomes with value

Why the model leans Chelsea

Squad news

Chelsea

Bournemouth

Team comparison

Chelsea attack → Bournemouth defence

Bournemouth attack → Chelsea defence

The scorelines behind the model's numbers

Most likely scorelines

Check your bookmaker's price

Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Team goals — Chelsea

Team goals — Bournemouth

Model details