Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 15:00
Full timeBournemouth 0:1 Liverpool
Bournemouth were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. Liverpool won 1–0. The biggest difference was Bournemouth's attack: 0.79 xG against 1.63 projected (−0.84). Liverpool produced 1.65 xG against 1.22 projected (+0.43).
Goals
- 57' Alexander Isak Liverpool · 0.58 xG chance 0–1
The model against the result
- Bournemouth
- 45%
- Draw
- 29%
- Liverpool
- 26% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Bournemouth produced 0.84 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 9
- 12
- On target
- 2
- 3
- Inside the box
- 5
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.13
- Open play xG
- 0.74
- 1.45
- Set-piece xG
- 0.06
- 0.13
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.76 for Bournemouth and 1.57 for Liverpool.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
21 shots · 2.38 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Bournemouth
- Liverpool
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.52 xG created 1.42 xGA
- D 2.25 created, 1.48 conceded against Manchester City
- D 0.95 created, 1.73 conceded against Nottingham Forest
- L 0.65 created, 2.25 conceded against Manchester City
- D 2.16 created, 1.84 conceded against Everton
- D 1.37 created, 0.71 conceded against Newcastle United
- D 1.75 created, 0.50 conceded against Brentford
1.86 xG created 1.46 xGA
- L 1.43 created, 1.85 conceded against Aston Villa
- D 3.04 created, 1.56 conceded against Brentford
- D 2.98 created, 1.58 conceded against Newcastle United
- D 1.75 created, 2.30 conceded against Nottingham Forest
- W 0.69 created, 0.75 conceded against Ipswich Town
- D 1.28 created, 0.70 conceded against Fulham
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged2 won5 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool not to score | 5.50 | +45.8% | Lost |
| Bournemouth to win | 3.10 | +40.5% | Lost |
| Liverpool at most 1 goal | 2.00 | +29.6% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.63 | +15.6% | Won |
| Draw | 3.80 | +8.9% | Lost |
| Bournemouth 2+ goals | 2.10 | +5.2% | Lost |
| Bournemouth to score | 1.22 | +1.3% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 45.3% | 30.7% | +14.6 pp | 2.21 |
| Draw | 28.7% | 25.0% | +3.6 pp | 3.49 |
| Liverpool | 26.0% | 44.3% | −18.3 pp | 3.85 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth to score | 82.9% | 76.6% | +6.3 pp | 1.21 |
| Bournemouth not to score | 17.1% | 23.4% | −6.3 pp | 5.84 |
| Liverpool to score | 73.5% | 82.8% | −9.3 pp | 1.36 |
| Liverpool not to score | 26.5% | 17.2% | +9.3 pp | 3.77 |
| Both teams to score | 62.5% | 64.5% | −2.0 pp | 1.60 |
| Both teams not to score | 37.5% | 35.5% | +2.0 pp | 2.67 |
| Bournemouth 2+ goals | 50.1% | 44.3% | +5.8 pp | 2.00 |
| Bournemouth at most 1 goal | 49.9% | 55.7% | −5.8 pp | 2.00 |
| Liverpool 2+ goals | 35.2% | 53.7% | −18.4 pp | 2.84 |
| Liverpool at most 1 goal | 64.8% | 46.3% | +18.4 pp | 1.54 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.8% | 82.8% | −1.0 pp | 1.22 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.2% | 17.2% | +1.0 pp | 5.51 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | 63.6% | −7.7 pp | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.0% | 36.4% | +7.7 pp | 2.27 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Bournemouth sample
- 20 matches
- Liverpool sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.