Friday, 04/09/2026 at 21:00
Full timeIpswich Town 0:2 Liverpool
Liverpool were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Liverpool's attack: 0.69 xG against 1.68 projected (−0.99). Ipswich Town produced 0.75 xG against 1.55 projected (−0.80).
Goals
- 6' Alexander Isak Liverpool · 0.08 xG chance 0–1
- 9' Alexander Isak Liverpool · 0.14 xG chance 0–2
The model against the result
- Ipswich Town
- 33%
- Draw
- 27%
- Liverpool
- 39% What happened
Data coverage One of these teams has only 2 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Liverpool produced 0.99 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 14
- 10
- On target
- 5
- 7
- Inside the box
- 4
- 5
- xG per shot
- 0.05
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 0.63
- 0.63
- Set-piece xG
- 0.11
- 0.05
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.73 for Ipswich Town and 0.66 for Liverpool.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
24 shots · 1.42 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Ipswich Town
- Liverpool
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.90 xG created 2.61 xGA
1.78 xG created 1.69 xGA
- L 0.89 created, 2.34 conceded against Manchester United
- D 0.56 created, 0.50 conceded against Chelsea
- L 1.43 created, 1.85 conceded against Aston Villa
- D 3.04 created, 1.56 conceded against Brentford
- D 2.98 created, 1.58 conceded against Newcastle United
- D 1.75 created, 2.30 conceded against Nottingham Forest
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged0 won7 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Town to win | 5.25 | +75.4% | Lost |
| Ipswich Town 2+ goals | 3.00 | +42.2% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.75 | +29.4% | Lost |
| Liverpool not to score | 8.00 | +29.1% | Lost |
| Liverpool at most 1 goal | 2.63 | +26.4% | Lost |
| Ipswich Town to score | 1.40 | +14.0% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | +4.6% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Town | 33.4% | 17.8% | +15.6 pp | 2.99 |
| Draw | 27.3% | 19.7% | +7.5 pp | 3.67 |
| Liverpool | 39.3% | 62.4% | −23.1 pp | 2.54 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Town to score | 81.4% | 66.3% | +15.2 pp | 1.23 |
| Ipswich Town not to score | 18.6% | 33.7% | −15.2 pp | 5.39 |
| Liverpool to score | 83.9% | 88.1% | −4.2 pp | 1.19 |
| Liverpool not to score | 16.1% | 11.9% | +4.2 pp | 6.20 |
| Both teams to score | 69.7% | 62.5% | +7.2 pp | 1.43 |
| Both teams not to score | 30.3% | 37.5% | −7.2 pp | 3.30 |
| Ipswich Town 2+ goals | 47.4% | 31.3% | +16.2 pp | 2.11 |
| Ipswich Town at most 1 goal | 52.6% | 68.7% | −16.2 pp | 1.90 |
| Liverpool 2+ goals | 51.9% | 64.5% | −12.7 pp | 1.93 |
| Liverpool at most 1 goal | 48.1% | 35.5% | +12.7 pp | 2.08 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.0% | 84.2% | +2.8 pp | 1.15 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 13.0% | 15.8% | −2.8 pp | 7.69 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.8% | 65.6% | −0.8 pp | 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.2% | 34.4% | +0.8 pp | 2.84 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Ipswich Town sample
- 2 matches
- Liverpool sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 6 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 6 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Ipswich Town has only 2 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.