Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 13:30
Full timeNewcastle United 2:2 Bournemouth
Newcastle United were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Newcastle United's attack: 0.71 xG against 1.55 projected (−0.84).
Goals
- 9' Marcus Tavernier Bournemouth · 0.62 xG chance 0–1
- 35' Malick Thiaw (o.g.) Bournemouth · 0.13 xG chance 0–2
- 37' Harvey Barnes Newcastle United · 0.05 xG chance 1–2
- 88' Jacob Ramsey Newcastle United · 0.09 xG chance 2–2
The model against the result
- Newcastle United
- 39%
- Draw
- 29% What happened
- Bournemouth
- 33%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Newcastle United produced 0.84 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 8
- 18
- On target
- 2
- 6
- Inside the box
- 5
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.09
- Open play xG
- 0.47
- 1.52
- Set-piece xG
- 0.21
- 0.13
- Penalties
- —
- —
Newcastle United's shots add up to 0.68 xG and Bournemouth's to 1.65; the published figures are 0.71 and 1.37.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
26 shots · 2.33 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Newcastle United
- Bournemouth
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.50 xG created 1.58 xGA
- W 3.16 created, 1.53 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion
- D 1.48 created, 1.10 conceded against Nottingham Forest
- W 1.73 created, 0.95 conceded against West Ham United
- L 0.31 created, 1.81 conceded against Fulham
- D 1.58 created, 2.98 conceded against Liverpool
- W 0.72 created, 1.12 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
1.49 xG created 1.59 xGA
- W 2.08 created, 0.89 conceded against Crystal Palace
- W 0.82 created, 1.33 conceded against Fulham
- D 2.25 created, 1.48 conceded against Manchester City
- D 0.95 created, 1.73 conceded against Nottingham Forest
- L 0.65 created, 2.25 conceded against Manchester City
- D 2.16 created, 1.84 conceded against Everton
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth to win | 3.30 | +7.9% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.60 | +2.8% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United | 38.7% | 45.1% | −6.3 pp | 2.58 |
| Draw | 28.6% | 26.3% | +2.3 pp | 3.50 |
| Bournemouth | 32.7% | 28.7% | +4.0 pp | 3.06 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United to score | 81.5% | 81.1% | +0.4 pp | 1.23 |
| Newcastle United not to score | 18.5% | 18.9% | −0.4 pp | 5.41 |
| Bournemouth to score | 78.6% | 75.0% | +3.6 pp | 1.27 |
| Bournemouth not to score | 21.4% | 25.0% | −3.6 pp | 4.67 |
| Both teams to score | 65.6% | 62.5% | +3.1 pp | 1.52 |
| Both teams not to score | 34.4% | 37.5% | −3.1 pp | 2.91 |
| Newcastle United 2+ goals | 47.5% | 50.0% | −2.5 pp | 2.10 |
| Newcastle United at most 1 goal | 52.5% | 50.0% | +2.5 pp | 1.91 |
| Bournemouth 2+ goals | 42.9% | 42.3% | +0.6 pp | 2.33 |
| Bournemouth at most 1 goal | 57.1% | 57.7% | −0.6 pp | 1.75 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.7% | 81.1% | +2.7 pp | 1.19 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16.3% | 18.9% | −2.7 pp | 6.15 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.1% | 60.2% | −1.1 pp | 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.9% | 39.8% | +1.1 pp | 2.44 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Newcastle United sample
- 20 matches
- Bournemouth sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 22 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 22 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.