Chelsea 4:3 Brighton & Hove Albion: xG & match report · Premier League

Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 15:00

Full time

Match report · Premier League

Chelsea Home 2.97 xG · 17 shots

Brighton & Hove Albion Away 1.49 xG · 16 shots

43 The scoreline reflected the chances

Chelsea were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. They won 4–3. The biggest difference was Chelsea's attack: 2.97 xG against 1.33 projected (+1.64). Brighton & Hove Albion produced 1.49 xG against 1.24 projected (+0.25).

Goals

4' Roméo Lavia Chelsea · 0.52 xG chance 1–0
14' Pedro Neto Chelsea · 0.30 xG chance 2–0
32' João Pedro Chelsea · 0.48 xG chance 3–0
35' Malick Yalcouyé Brighton & Hove Albion · 0.44 xG chance 3–1
63' João Pedro (o.g.) Brighton & Hove Albion · 0.10 xG chance 3–2
74' Cole Palmer Chelsea · 0.06 xG chance 4–2
90' Pascal Groß Brighton & Hove Albion · 0.04 xG chance 4–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Chelsea: 37% What happened
Draw: 31%
Brighton & Hove Albion: 32%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Chelsea 1.33 2.97 +1.64

Brighton & Hove Albion 1.24 1.49 +0.25

Chelsea produced 1.64 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Chelsea Brighton & Hove Albion

Shots: 17; 16
On target: 6; 7
Inside the box: 15; 13
xG per shot: 0.18; 0.10
Open play xG: 1.91; 0.74
Set-piece xG: 1.08; 0.90
Penalties: —; —

Chelsea's shots add up to 2.99 xG and Brighton & Hove Albion's to 1.64; the published figures are 2.97 and 1.49.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

33 shots · 4.63 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Chelsea
Brighton & Hove Albion
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Chelsea

1.13 xG created 1.53 xGA

L 0.37 created, 2.14 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion
L 2.15 created, 2.05 conceded against Nottingham Forest
D 0.50 created, 0.56 conceded against Liverpool
W 0.63 created, 1.27 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
L 0.89 created, 1.84 conceded against Sunderland
W 2.24 created, 1.33 conceded against Fulham

Brighton & Hove Albion

2.15 xG created 1.06 xGA

W 2.14 created, 0.37 conceded against Chelsea
L 1.53 created, 3.16 conceded against Newcastle United
W 1.62 created, 0.49 conceded against Wolverhampton
L 3.06 created, 0.39 conceded against Leeds United
L 0.79 created, 1.66 conceded against Manchester United
W 3.77 created, 0.29 conceded against Aston Villa

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Chelsea: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged1 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Chelsea against Brighton & Hove Albion before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Chelsea not to score	5.50	+30.2%	Lost
Brighton & Hove Albion to win	3.80	+25.1%	Lost
Draw	3.70	+21.8%	Lost
Chelsea at most 1 goal	2.00	+21.3%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.20	+18.3%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	4.50	+3.5%	Lost
Brighton & Hove Albion to score	1.33	+0.9%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Chelsea	36.7%	49.5%	−12.8 pp	2.72
Draw	31.2%	25.6%	+5.7 pp	3.20
Brighton & Hove Albion	32.1%	24.9%	+7.2 pp	3.12

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Chelsea to score	76.3%	82.8%	−6.5 pp	1.31
Chelsea not to score	23.7%	17.2%	+6.5 pp	4.23
Brighton & Hove Albion to score	73.9%	70.9%	+3.0 pp	1.35
Brighton & Hove Albion not to score	26.1%	29.1%	−3.0 pp	3.84
Both teams to score	58.3%	58.9%	−0.6 pp	1.72
Both teams not to score	41.7%	41.1%	+0.6 pp	2.40
Chelsea 2+ goals	39.3%	53.7%	−14.3 pp	2.54
Chelsea at most 1 goal	60.7%	46.3%	+14.3 pp	1.65
Brighton & Hove Albion 2+ goals	35.8%	35.5%	+0.3 pp	2.80
Brighton & Hove Albion at most 1 goal	64.2%	64.5%	−0.3 pp	1.56
Over 1.5 goals	77.0%	78.9%	−2.0 pp	1.30
Under 1.5 goals	23.0%	21.1%	+2.0 pp	4.35
Over 2.5 goals	48.6%	56.9%	−8.3 pp	2.06
Under 2.5 goals	51.4%	43.1%	+8.3 pp	1.94

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Chelsea sample: 20 matches
Brighton & Hove Albion sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.