Premier League expected points table 2026/2027
Every Premier League club ranked on the points its match-by-match chances were worth, with the position the real table gives it and the distance between the two.
Arsenal lead on expected points with 10.36 over 5 matches with xG. That is 1.02 clear of Manchester City. Newcastle United sit 11 places higher in the table than their chances place them: 9 against 20 on expected points. Nottingham Forest sit 10 places lower in the table than their chances place them: 13 against 3 on expected points.
Table against xPts
- Higher in the table than on xPts
- Lower in the table than on xPts
- Fewer than 3 places apart
Ranked on expected points
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | Pts vs xPts | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal ARS | 5 | 12 | 10.36 | +1.64 | 2 | 1 place below its expected-points rank |
| 2 | Manchester City MCI | 5 | 15 | 9.34 | +5.66 | 1 | 1 place above its expected-points rank |
| 3 | Nottingham Forest NFO | 5 | 5 | 8.59 | −3.59 | 13 | 10 places below its expected-points rank |
| 4 | Liverpool LIV | 5 | 9 | 8.43 | +0.57 | 6 | 2 places below its expected-points rank |
| 5 | Brentford BRE | 5 | 9 | 8.29 | +0.71 | 4 | 1 place above its expected-points rank |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove Albion BHA | 5 | 10 | 8.12 | +1.88 | 3 | 3 places above its expected-points rank |
| 7 | Manchester United MUN | 5 | 5 | 7.99 | −2.99 | 12 | 5 places below its expected-points rank |
| 8 | Leeds United LEE | 5 | 9 | 7.75 | +1.25 | 5 | 3 places above its expected-points rank |
| 9 | Sunderland SUN | 5 | 4 | 7.35 | −3.35 | 14 | 5 places below its expected-points rank |
| 10 | Everton EVE | 5 | 9 | 7.24 | +1.76 | 7 | 3 places above its expected-points rank |
| 11 | Ipswich Town IPS | 5 | 6 | 7.03 | −1.03 | 11 | Same place as on expected points |
| 12 | Bournemouth BOU | 5 | 3 | 6.93 | −3.93 | 17 | 5 places below its expected-points rank |
| 13 | Tottenham Hotspur TOT | 5 | 2 | 5.86 | −3.86 | 20 | 7 places below its expected-points rank |
| 13 | Fulham FUL | 5 | 2 | 5.86 | −3.86 | 19 | 6 places below its expected-points rank |
| 15 | Chelsea CHE | 5 | 7 | 5.82 | +1.18 | 10 | 5 places above its expected-points rank |
| 16 | Hull City HUL | 5 | 8 | 5.43 | +2.57 | 8 | 8 places above its expected-points rank |
| 17 | Crystal Palace CRY | 5 | 4 | 4.76 | −0.76 | 15 | 2 places above its expected-points rank |
| 18 | Aston Villa AVL | 5 | 4 | 4.50 | −0.50 | 16 | 2 places above its expected-points rank |
| 19 | Coventry City COV | 5 | 3 | 4.33 | −1.33 | 18 | 1 place above its expected-points rank |
| 20 | Newcastle United NEW | 5 | 8 | 4.08 | +3.92 | 9 | 11 places above its expected-points rank |
- Higher in the table than on xPts
- Lower in the table than on xPts
A gap can come from finishing, goalkeeping, game state or chance. xG and xPts are model estimates, not the result a team deserved.
About these figures What each column measures, and the thresholds this ranking is under. Show Hide
- P
- — Matches played
- Pts
- — Points
- xPts
- — Expected points: the points a team's match-by-match xG would be worth on average.
- Pts vs xPts
- — Actual points minus expected points based on match xG.
- Actual
- — Position in the real table
- Diff
- — Places between this ranking and the real table. Up is a club higher in the real table than its expected points place it.
Every club with expected goals behind it is ranked here: these are season totals rather than rates, so a club is not held back by having played fewer matches. The ranking opens once the median club has played 3.