Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 16:00
Full timeBrighton & Hove Albion 3:0 Arsenal
Arsenal were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. Brighton & Hove Albion won 3–0. The biggest difference was Arsenal's attack: 1.63 xG against 1.29 projected (+0.34).
Goals
- 31' Pascal Groß Brighton & Hove Albion · 0.03 xG chance 1–0
- 45' Charalampos Kostoulas Brighton & Hove Albion · 0.06 xG chance 2–0
- 57' Chema Andrés Brighton & Hove Albion · 0.30 xG chance 3–0
The model against the result
- Brighton & Hove Albion
- 33% What happened
- Draw
- 32%
- Arsenal
- 36%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Arsenal produced 0.34 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 17
- 11
- On target
- 5
- 2
- Inside the box
- 10
- 10
- xG per shot
- 0.08
- 0.15
- Open play xG
- 0.75
- 1.14
- Set-piece xG
- 0.60
- 0.49
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.35 for Brighton & Hove Albion.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
28 shots · 2.98 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Brighton & Hove Albion
- Arsenal
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.35 xG created 1.52 xGA
- L 3.06 created, 0.39 conceded against Leeds United
- L 0.79 created, 1.66 conceded against Manchester United
- W 3.77 created, 0.29 conceded against Aston Villa
- L 1.49 created, 2.97 conceded against Chelsea
- D 2.19 created, 2.49 conceded against Leeds United
- W 2.81 created, 1.33 conceded against Coventry City
1.78 xG created 0.65 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged5 won3 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton & Hove Albion to win | 4.75 | +56.3% | Won |
| Arsenal not to score | 6.00 | +48.9% | Won |
| Arsenal at most 1 goal | 2.10 | +30.7% | Won |
| Draw | 3.90 | +22.9% | Lost |
| Brighton & Hove Albion 2+ goals | 3.40 | +21.4% | Won |
| Brighton & Hove Albion to score | 1.50 | +10.8% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | +10.5% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.33 | +3.5% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 32.9% | 20.0% | +13.0 pp | 3.04 |
| Draw | 31.5% | 24.3% | +7.2 pp | 3.17 |
| Arsenal | 35.6% | 55.7% | −20.2 pp | 2.81 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton & Hove Albion to score | 73.9% | 62.5% | +11.4 pp | 1.35 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion not to score | 26.1% | 37.5% | −11.4 pp | 3.83 |
| Arsenal to score | 75.2% | 84.2% | −9.0 pp | 1.33 |
| Arsenal not to score | 24.8% | 15.8% | +9.0 pp | 4.03 |
| Both teams to score | 57.4% | 54.7% | +2.7 pp | 1.74 |
| Both teams not to score | 42.6% | 45.3% | −2.7 pp | 2.35 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion 2+ goals | 35.7% | 27.7% | +8.0 pp | 2.80 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion at most 1 goal | 64.3% | 72.3% | −8.0 pp | 1.56 |
| Arsenal 2+ goals | 37.8% | 55.7% | −18.0 pp | 2.65 |
| Arsenal at most 1 goal | 62.2% | 44.3% | +18.0 pp | 1.61 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.1% | 78.0% | −1.9 pp | 1.31 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23.9% | 22.0% | +1.9 pp | 4.19 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.4% | 54.9% | −7.5 pp | 2.11 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.6% | 45.1% | +7.5 pp | 1.90 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Brighton & Hove Albion sample
- 20 matches
- Arsenal sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 7 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 7 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.