Coventry City 0:5 Brighton & Hove Albion: xG & match report · Premier League

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 15:00

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Match report · Premier League

Coventry City Home 1.33 xG · 14 shots

Brighton & Hove Albion Away 2.81 xG · 22 shots

05 The scoreline reflected the chances

Coventry City were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. Brighton & Hove Albion won 5–0. The biggest difference was Brighton & Hove Albion's attack: 2.81 xG against 1.38 projected (+1.43).

Goals

35' Charalampos Kostoulas Brighton & Hove Albion · 0.14 xG chance 0–1
51' Malick Yalcouyé Brighton & Hove Albion · 0.30 xG chance 0–2
70' Pascal Groß (pen.) Brighton & Hove Albion · 0.82 xG chance 0–3
83' Lewis Dunk Brighton & Hove Albion · 0.03 xG chance 0–4
90' Yasin Ayari Brighton & Hove Albion · 0.11 xG chance 0–5

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Coventry City: 35%
Draw: 30%
Brighton & Hove Albion: 35% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Coventry City 1.39 1.33 -0.06

Brighton & Hove Albion 1.38 2.81 +1.43

Brighton & Hove Albion produced 1.43 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Coventry City Brighton & Hove Albion

Shots: 14; 22
On target: 6; 7
Inside the box: 12; 14
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.13
Open play xG: 0.65; 1.72
Set-piece xG: 0.79; 0.21
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.44 for Coventry City and 1.90 for Brighton & Hove Albion.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

36 shots · 4.19 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Coventry City
Brighton & Hove Albion
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Coventry City

0.95 xG created 1.57 xGA

L 0.20 created, 1.88 conceded against Arsenal
L 1.29 created, 0.72 conceded against Hull City
L 1.37 created, 2.12 conceded against Manchester City

Brighton & Hove Albion

2.15 xG created 1.38 xGA

W 1.62 created, 0.49 conceded against Wolverhampton
L 3.06 created, 0.39 conceded against Leeds United
L 0.79 created, 1.66 conceded against Manchester United
W 3.77 created, 0.29 conceded against Aston Villa
L 1.49 created, 2.97 conceded against Chelsea
D 2.19 created, 2.49 conceded against Leeds United

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged0 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Coventry City against Brighton & Hove Albion before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Coventry City to win	3.70	+30.9%	Lost
Draw	3.90	+16.8%	Lost
Coventry City 2+ goals	2.75	+14.8%	Lost
Brighton & Hove Albion at most 1 goal	1.91	+12.2%	Lost
Brighton & Hove Albion not to score	5.00	+11.7%	Lost
Coventry City to score	1.36	+6.4%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.67	+3.9%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Coventry City	35.4%	25.7%	+9.6 pp	2.83
Draw	29.9%	24.4%	+5.5 pp	3.34
Brighton & Hove Albion	34.7%	49.9%	−15.2 pp	2.88

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Coventry City to score	78.0%	68.7%	+9.3 pp	1.28
Coventry City not to score	22.0%	31.3%	−9.3 pp	4.55
Brighton & Hove Albion to score	77.7%	81.1%	−3.4 pp	1.29
Brighton & Hove Albion not to score	22.3%	18.9%	+3.4 pp	4.48
Both teams to score	62.3%	55.7%	+6.6 pp	1.60
Both teams not to score	37.7%	44.3%	−6.6 pp	2.65
Coventry City 2+ goals	41.8%	33.7%	+8.0 pp	2.39
Coventry City at most 1 goal	58.2%	66.3%	−8.0 pp	1.72
Brighton & Hove Albion 2+ goals	41.2%	51.5%	−10.2 pp	2.43
Brighton & Hove Albion at most 1 goal	58.8%	48.5%	+10.2 pp	1.70
Over 1.5 goals	80.7%	78.0%	+2.7 pp	1.24
Under 1.5 goals	19.3%	22.0%	−2.7 pp	5.18
Over 2.5 goals	54.0%	54.9%	−0.8 pp	1.85
Under 2.5 goals	46.0%	45.1%	+0.8 pp	2.18

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Coventry City sample: 3 matches
Brighton & Hove Albion sample: 20 matches
Computed: 5 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Coventry City has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.