Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 16:00
Full timeBrighton & Hove Albion 1:1 Leeds United
Brighton & Hove Albion were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 55%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Leeds United's attack: 2.49 xG against 1.00 projected (+1.49). Brighton & Hove Albion produced 2.19 xG against 1.80 projected (+0.39).
Goals
- 15' Jayden Bogle Leeds United · 0.87 xG chance 0–1
- 71' Luka Vušković Brighton & Hove Albion · 0.16 xG chance 1–1
The model against the result
- Brighton & Hove Albion
- 55%
- Draw
- 27% What happened
- Leeds United
- 18%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Leeds United produced 1.49 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 20
- 10
- On target
- 5
- 5
- Inside the box
- 11
- 10
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.28
- Open play xG
- 1.24
- 0.81
- Set-piece xG
- 0.59
- 2.01
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.86 for Brighton & Hove Albion and 2.82 for Leeds United.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
30 shots · 4.65 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Brighton & Hove Albion
- Leeds United
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.04 xG created 1.49 xGA
- L 1.53 created, 3.16 conceded against Newcastle United
- W 1.62 created, 0.49 conceded against Wolverhampton
- L 3.06 created, 0.39 conceded against Leeds United
- L 0.79 created, 1.66 conceded against Manchester United
- W 3.77 created, 0.29 conceded against Aston Villa
- L 1.49 created, 2.97 conceded against Chelsea
1.14 xG created 1.62 xGA
- W 1.64 created, 0.57 conceded against Burnley
- D 1.34 created, 1.27 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
- W 0.39 created, 3.06 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion
- L 1.59 created, 2.61 conceded against West Ham United
- W 0.47 created, 0.66 conceded against Nottingham Forest
- D 1.43 created, 1.56 conceded against Brentford
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged2 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton & Hove Albion to win | 2.00 | +10.8% | Lost |
| Brighton & Hove Albion 2+ goals | 1.83 | +2.1% | Lost |
| Brighton & Hove Albion to score | 1.18 | +1.4% | Won |
| Leeds United at most 1 goal | 1.36 | +0.3% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 55.4% | 47.3% | +8.0 pp | 1.81 |
| Draw | 26.7% | 27.1% | −0.4 pp | 3.75 |
| Leeds United | 17.9% | 25.6% | −7.7 pp | 5.58 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton & Hove Albion to score | 85.8% | 79.2% | +6.6 pp | 1.17 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion not to score | 14.2% | 20.8% | −6.6 pp | 7.04 |
| Leeds United to score | 66.1% | 66.3% | −0.1 pp | 1.51 |
| Leeds United not to score | 33.9% | 33.7% | +0.1 pp | 2.95 |
| Both teams to score | 58.3% | 55.7% | +2.5 pp | 1.72 |
| Both teams not to score | 41.7% | 44.3% | −2.5 pp | 2.40 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion 2+ goals | 55.7% | 50.0% | +5.7 pp | 1.80 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion at most 1 goal | 44.3% | 50.0% | −5.7 pp | 2.26 |
| Leeds United 2+ goals | 26.5% | 31.3% | −4.8 pp | 3.78 |
| Leeds United at most 1 goal | 73.5% | 68.7% | +4.8 pp | 1.36 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.9% | 78.0% | +2.9 pp | 1.24 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19.1% | 22.0% | −2.9 pp | 5.24 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.7% | 54.9% | −0.2 pp | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.3% | 45.1% | +0.2 pp | 2.21 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Brighton & Hove Albion sample
- 20 matches
- Leeds United sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 59 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.