Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 16:00
Full timeCoventry City 0:1 Hull City
Coventry City were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. Hull City won 1–0. The biggest difference was Hull City's attack: 0.72 xG against 1.19 projected (−0.47).
Goals
- 82' Liam Millar Hull City · 0.40 xG chance 0–1
The model against the result
- Coventry City
- 42%
- Draw
- 30%
- Hull City
- 28% What happened
Data coverage One of these teams has only 1 match in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Hull City produced 0.47 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 11
- 5
- On target
- 3
- 2
- Inside the box
- 7
- 2
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.14
- Open play xG
- 1.31
- 0.69
- Set-piece xG
- 0.01
- 0.02
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.28 for Coventry City and 0.72 for Hull City.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
16 shots · 2.03 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Coventry City
- Hull City
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged4 won4 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hull City to win | 4.75 | +33.5% | Won |
| Hull City 2+ goals | 3.50 | +18.6% | Lost |
| Hull City to score | 1.50 | +8.6% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | +6.8% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.50 | +5.9% | Lost |
| Coventry City not to score | 5.00 | +2.6% | Won |
| Coventry City at most 1 goal | 1.83 | +2.2% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 | +0.9% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry City | 41.6% | 52.8% | −11.2 pp | 2.40 |
| Draw | 30.3% | 27.2% | +3.1 pp | 3.30 |
| Hull City | 28.1% | 20.0% | +8.1 pp | 3.56 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry City to score | 79.5% | 81.1% | −1.6 pp | 1.26 |
| Coventry City not to score | 20.5% | 18.9% | +1.6 pp | 4.87 |
| Hull City to score | 72.4% | 62.5% | +9.9 pp | 1.38 |
| Hull City not to score | 27.6% | 37.5% | −9.9 pp | 3.63 |
| Both teams to score | 59.3% | 52.0% | +7.3 pp | 1.69 |
| Both teams not to score | 40.7% | 48.0% | −7.3 pp | 2.46 |
| Coventry City 2+ goals | 44.3% | 50.0% | −5.7 pp | 2.26 |
| Coventry City at most 1 goal | 55.7% | 50.0% | +5.7 pp | 1.79 |
| Hull City 2+ goals | 33.9% | 26.9% | +7.0 pp | 2.95 |
| Hull City at most 1 goal | 66.1% | 73.1% | −7.0 pp | 1.51 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.5% | 74.5% | +4.0 pp | 1.27 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21.5% | 25.5% | −4.0 pp | 4.65 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% | 50.0% | +0.8 pp | 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.2% | 50.0% | −0.8 pp | 2.03 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 2 warningsShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Coventry City sample
- 1 match
- Hull City sample
- 1 match
- Computed
- 6 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 6 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Coventry City has only 1 match in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
- Hull City has only 1 match in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.