Hull City xG 2026/2027: expected goals, xGA & xPts per match

Hull City xG and xGA per match

Attack

1.10 xG per match

Attack (xG per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank	Club	xG per match
#1	Brighton & Hove Albion	2.31
#2	Manchester City	2.10
#3	Brentford	1.96
#4	Manchester United	1.93
#5	Sunderland	1.90
#6	Arsenal	1.70
#7	Liverpool	1.67
#8	Fulham	1.56
#9	Leeds United	1.56
#10	Ipswich Town	1.53
#11	Chelsea	1.47
#12	Everton	1.46
#13	Nottingham Forest	1.45
#14	Bournemouth	1.34
#15	Crystal Palace	1.25
#16	Hull City	1.10
#17	Newcastle United	1.07
#18	Tottenham Hotspur	1.00
#19	Coventry City	0.97
#20	Aston Villa	0.91

League avg: 1.51
Total: 5.52 5 matches

Defence

1.48 xGA per match

#10/20

Defence (xGA per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank	Club	xGA per match
#1	Arsenal	0.81
#2	Nottingham Forest	0.95
#3	Liverpool	1.22
#4	Brentford	1.26
#5	Leeds United	1.27
#6	Everton	1.39
#7	Bournemouth	1.39
#8	Manchester United	1.40
#9	Manchester City	1.45
#10	Hull City	1.48
#11	Tottenham Hotspur	1.56
#12	Coventry City	1.73
#13	Brighton & Hove Albion	1.74
#14	Sunderland	1.75
#15	Ipswich Town	1.75
#16	Fulham	1.77
#17	Chelsea	1.78
#18	Newcastle United	1.83
#19	Aston Villa	1.84
#20	Crystal Palace	1.89

League avg: 1.51
Total: 7.38 5 matches

xG difference

-0.37 xGD per match

#15/20

xG difference (xGD per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank	Club	xGD per match
#1	Arsenal	+0.89
#2	Brentford	+0.70
#3	Manchester City	+0.65
#4	Brighton & Hove Albion	+0.57
#5	Manchester United	+0.53
#6	Nottingham Forest	+0.50
#7	Liverpool	+0.45
#8	Leeds United	+0.29
#9	Sunderland	+0.15
#10	Everton	+0.08
#11	Bournemouth	-0.05
#12	Fulham	-0.21
#13	Ipswich Town	-0.22
#14	Chelsea	-0.31
#15	Hull City	-0.37
#16	Tottenham Hotspur	-0.56
#17	Crystal Palace	-0.64
#18	Coventry City	-0.75
#19	Newcastle United	-0.76
#20	Aston Villa	-0.94

League avg: 0.00
Total: -1.86 5 matches

Expected points Model

1.09 xPts per match

#16/20

Expected points (xPts per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank	Club	xPts per match
#1	Arsenal	2.07
#2	Manchester City	1.87
#3	Nottingham Forest	1.72
#4	Liverpool	1.69
#5	Brentford	1.66
#6	Brighton & Hove Albion	1.62
#7	Manchester United	1.60
#8	Leeds United	1.55
#9	Sunderland	1.47
#10	Everton	1.45
#11	Ipswich Town	1.41
#12	Bournemouth	1.39
#13	Tottenham Hotspur	1.17
#14	Fulham	1.17
#15	Chelsea	1.16
#16	Hull City	1.09
#17	Crystal Palace	0.95
#18	Aston Villa	0.90
#19	Coventry City	0.87
#20	Newcastle United	0.82

League avg: 1.38
Total: 5.43 vs 8 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 5 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Hull City's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Premier League. They rank #15 for xG difference at -0.37 per match, from low shot volume and low chance quality. Their 6 goals are 0.48 above 5.52 xG, while 8 points are 2.57 above 5.43 xPts. After only 5 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected

Goals vs xG

6 5.52 +0.48 scored 0.48 more than xG within normal variance

Goals conceded vs xGA

4 7.38 -3.38 conceded 3.38 fewer than xGA outside normal variance

Points vs xPts Model

8 5.43 +2.57 2.57 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Hull City are 0.48 goals above their xG after 5 matches. The gap was widest at +1.07, against Chelsea on Sat 12/09.

Goals: 6
xG: 5.52
Gap: +0.48

Hull City: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date	Opponent	Goals	xG	Match gap	Running gap
Sat 22/08	Manchester United	2	1.26	+0.74	+0.74
Sat 29/08	Coventry City	1	0.72	+0.28	+1.02
Sat 05/09	Aston Villa	0	0.57	-0.57	+0.45
Sat 12/09	Chelsea	2	1.38	+0.62	+1.07
Sat 19/09	Newcastle United	1	1.59	-0.59	+0.48

Conceded minus xGA, match by match

Hull City have conceded 3.38 fewer than their xGA after 5 matches. The gap was widest at -5.03, against Aston Villa on Sat 05/09.

Conceded: 4
xGA: 7.38
Gap: -3.38

Hull City: Goals conceded vs xGA, the gap after every match with xG
Date	Opponent	Conceded	xGA	Match gap	Running gap
Sat 22/08	Manchester United	0	1.81	-1.81	-1.81
Sat 29/08	Coventry City	0	1.29	-1.29	-3.10
Sat 05/09	Aston Villa	0	1.93	-1.93	-5.03
Sat 12/09	Chelsea	2	0.91	+1.09	-3.94
Sat 19/09	Newcastle United	2	1.44	+0.56	-3.38

Points minus xPts, match by match

Hull City are 2.57 points above their xPts after 5 matches. The gap was widest at +4.80, against Aston Villa on Sat 05/09.

Points: 8
xPts: 5.43
Gap: +2.57

Hull City: Points vs xPts, the gap after every match with xG
Date	Opponent	Points	xPts	Match gap	Running gap
Sat 22/08	Manchester United	3	0.96	+2.04	+2.04
Sat 29/08	Coventry City	3	0.84	+2.16	+4.20
Sat 05/09	Aston Villa	1	0.40	+0.60	+4.80
Sat 12/09	Chelsea	1	1.76	-0.76	+4.04
Sat 19/09	Newcastle United	0	1.47	-1.47	+2.57

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Hull City xG trend

Current form -0.20 npxGD per match

All 5 matches with xG so far — the window fills at 6.

Out-created the opponent in 2 of 5 matches. The worst was against Aston Villa on Sat 05/09 (-1.15).

npxG · last 5: 1.07
npxGA · last 5: 1.27

Hull City: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date	Opponent	npxG	npxGA	npxGD	Avg so far
Sat 22/08	Manchester United	1.31	1.81	-0.50	-0.50
Sat 29/08	Coventry City	0.72	1.28	-0.56	-0.53
Sat 05/09	Aston Villa	0.59	1.74	-1.15	-0.74
Sat 12/09	Chelsea	1.51	0.89	+0.62	-0.40
Sat 19/09	Newcastle United	1.24	0.64	+0.60	-0.20

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.07 npxG and 1.27 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far: tied number 17 hardest of 20 in Premier League; −0.10 xG vs league average; Over 5 league matches

Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.10 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 17 hardest of 20

Newcastle United Away −0.43
Chelsea Away 0.00
Aston Villa Home −0.26
Coventry City Away −0.22
Manchester United Home +0.43

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Hull City shots and chance quality

Low volume, low quality. Hull City take 12.2 shots a match (league 13.9) at 0.09 npxG a shot (league 0.10), =14 in Premier League for volume and #16 for quality. 52% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%), and set pieces produce 35% of their npxG (league 25%).

Attack

Shot volume

12.2 shots per match

=14/20

Shot volume (shots per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank	Club	shots per match
#1	Manchester United	22.6
#2	Brighton & Hove Albion	19.0
#3	Nottingham Forest	16.4
#4	Brentford	16.2
#5	Everton	16.0
#6	Liverpool	15.2
=7	Chelsea	14.4
=7	Fulham	14.4
#9	Tottenham Hotspur	14.2
=10	Bournemouth	13.6
=10	Manchester City	13.6
#12	Sunderland	13.2
#13	Arsenal	13.0
=14	Hull City	12.2
=14	Leeds United	12.2
#16	Ipswich Town	11.6
#17	Crystal Palace	10.6
=18	Coventry City	10.2
=18	Newcastle United	10.2
#20	Aston Villa	9.6

League avg: 13.9
Total: 61 shots from 5 matches

Chance quality

0.09 npxG per shot

#16/20

Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Premier League, best first
Rank	Club	npxG per shot
#1	Manchester City	0.14
#2	Sunderland	0.13
#3	Leeds United	0.13
#4	Ipswich Town	0.13
#5	Arsenal	0.12
#6	Crystal Palace	0.12
#7	Brentford	0.12
#8	Brighton & Hove Albion	0.11
#9	Fulham	0.11
#10	Bournemouth	0.11
#11	Coventry City	0.10
#12	Chelsea	0.10
#13	Everton	0.09
#14	Aston Villa	0.09
#15	Liverpool	0.09
#16	Hull City	0.09
#17	Newcastle United	0.08
#18	Manchester United	0.08
#19	Nottingham Forest	0.07
#20	Tottenham Hotspur	0.07

League avg: 0.10
Total: 5.37 npxG from 61 shots

Defence

Shots allowed

13.8 shots per match

=10/20

Shots allowed (shots per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank	Club	shots per match
#1	Nottingham Forest	10.4
=2	Arsenal	10.6
=2	Manchester United	10.6
#4	Bournemouth	10.8
=5	Brighton & Hove Albion	11.6
=5	Liverpool	11.6
#7	Manchester City	11.8
#8	Sunderland	12.0
#9	Brentford	13.4
=10	Everton	13.8
=10	Hull City	13.8
#12	Chelsea	14.4
#13	Leeds United	14.6
#14	Tottenham Hotspur	15.2
#15	Aston Villa	16.2
#16	Fulham	16.6
#17	Crystal Palace	16.8
#18	Ipswich Town	17.2
#19	Coventry City	17.4
#20	Newcastle United	19.6

League avg: 13.9
Total: 69 shots allowed from 5 matches

Chance quality allowed

0.09 npxGA per shot

#8/20

Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Premier League, best first
Rank	Club	npxGA per shot
#1	Arsenal	0.06
#2	Leeds United	0.08
#3	Newcastle United	0.08
#4	Coventry City	0.08
#5	Liverpool	0.09
#6	Brentford	0.09
#7	Tottenham Hotspur	0.09
#8	Hull City	0.09
#9	Fulham	0.10
#10	Everton	0.10
#11	Nottingham Forest	0.10
#12	Ipswich Town	0.10
#13	Crystal Palace	0.10
#14	Aston Villa	0.11
#15	Bournemouth	0.13
#16	Sunderland	0.13
#17	Manchester United	0.13
#18	Chelsea	0.13
#19	Manchester City	0.14
#20	Brighton & Hove Albion	0.16

League avg: 0.10
Total: 6.36 npxGA from 69 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

52% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 32 of 61 shots over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

68% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 47 of 69 shots allowed over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

65% open play · 35% set pieces

League avg 25% set pieces

From 1.9 of 5.6 npxG over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

88% open play · 12% set pieces

League avg 25% set pieces

From 0.8 of 6.4 npxG allowed over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Hull City home and away xG

Hull City per-match figures at home and away
Measure	Home only 2 matches with xG	Away
Matches	2	3
xG / match	0.92	1.23
xGA / match	1.87	1.21
xGD / match	-0.96	+0.02
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →	0.68	1.36

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Hull City match by xG

Window

Season Last 10 Last 5

Venue

All Home Away

Sort

Date xGD

This season

Matches: 5
xG / match: 1.10
xGA / match: 1.48
xGD / match: -0.37
Points: 8 of 15

Date Opponent Score xG Chances xGA xGD xPts Model

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Hull City in Premier League

Attack

xG / match #16 of 20
Shots / match =14 of 20
Chance quality #16 of 20
Home xG #18 of 20
Away xG #9 of 20

Defence

xGA / match #10 of 20
Shots allowed =10 of 20
Chance quality allowed #8 of 20

Overall

About the data

xG data: Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics: xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics: xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

Hull City expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Hull City xG and xGA per match

What the xG says

Actual vs expected

Goals minus xG, match by match

Conceded minus xGA, match by match

Points minus xPts, match by match

Hull City xG trend

Strength of schedule

Hull City shots and chance quality

Attack

Defence

Shot profile

Hull City home and away xG

Every Hull City match by xG

Hull City in Premier League

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data