Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 16:00
Full timeNewcastle United 2:1 Hull City
Newcastle United were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Hull City's attack: 1.59 xG against 1.24 projected (+0.35).
Goals
- 3' Joe Willock Newcastle United · 0.15 xG chance 1–0
- 7' Lewis Hall Newcastle United · 0.10 xG chance 2–0
- 67' Mohamed Ali Cho Hull City · 0.15 xG chance 2–1
The model against the result
- Newcastle United
- 40% What happened
- Draw
- 30%
- Hull City
- 30%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Hull City produced 0.35 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 12
- 21
- On target
- 5
- 4
- Inside the box
- 9
- 12
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.06
- Open play xG
- 0.55
- 0.99
- Set-piece xG
- 0.10
- 0.31
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.64 for Newcastle United and 1.24 for Hull City.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
33 shots · 2.77 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Newcastle United
- Hull City
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
0.99 xG created 1.72 xGA
- W 1.73 created, 0.95 conceded against West Ham United
- L 0.31 created, 1.81 conceded against Fulham
- D 1.58 created, 2.98 conceded against Liverpool
- W 0.72 created, 1.12 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
- D 0.71 created, 1.37 conceded against Bournemouth
- L 0.88 created, 2.08 conceded against Leeds United
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged2 won6 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hull City to win | 5.00 | +49.0% | Lost |
| Newcastle United not to score | 6.50 | +36.8% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.33 | +31.3% | Lost |
| Newcastle United at most 1 goal | 2.25 | +27.2% | Lost |
| Hull City 2+ goals | 3.25 | +16.0% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.30 | +11.6% | Lost |
| Hull City to score | 1.44 | +6.7% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | +0.2% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United | 39.9% | 59.2% | −19.3 pp | 2.51 |
| Draw | 30.3% | 21.9% | +8.4 pp | 3.30 |
| Hull City | 29.8% | 18.9% | +10.9 pp | 3.36 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United to score | 79.0% | 85.4% | −6.4 pp | 1.27 |
| Newcastle United not to score | 21.0% | 14.6% | +6.4 pp | 4.75 |
| Hull City to score | 73.9% | 64.5% | +9.4 pp | 1.35 |
| Hull City not to score | 26.1% | 35.5% | −9.4 pp | 3.83 |
| Both teams to score | 60.1% | 55.7% | +4.4 pp | 1.66 |
| Both teams not to score | 39.9% | 44.3% | −4.4 pp | 2.51 |
| Newcastle United 2+ goals | 43.5% | 58.9% | −15.4 pp | 2.30 |
| Newcastle United at most 1 goal | 56.5% | 41.1% | +15.4 pp | 1.77 |
| Hull City 2+ goals | 35.7% | 29.1% | +6.6 pp | 2.80 |
| Hull City at most 1 goal | 64.3% | 70.9% | −6.6 pp | 1.56 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.0% | 78.9% | +0.0 pp | 1.27 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21.0% | 21.1% | −0.0 pp | 4.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | 58.7% | −7.3 pp | 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.5% | 41.3% | +7.3 pp | 2.06 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Newcastle United sample
- 20 matches
- Hull City sample
- 4 matches
- Computed
- 7 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 7 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Hull City has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.