Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 15:00
7d 14h to kick-offHull City – Everton
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Hull City
- 39%
- Draw
- 30%
- Everton
- 31%
| Hull City | Draw | Everton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.60 | 3.28 | 3.23 |
- Total goals
- 2.68
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score
- 60%
One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 8 outcomes.
-
Hull City
- Model
- 38.5%
- Market, margin removed
- 27.3%
- Probability gap
- +11.2 pp
- Edge
- +31.0%
- Fair odds
- 2.60
- Market odds
- 3.40 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.73
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.6%
-
Draw
- Model
- 30.5%
- Market, margin removed
- 27.3%
- Probability gap
- +3.2 pp
- Edge
- +3.7%
- Fair odds
- 3.28
- Market odds
- 3.40 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.44
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.6%
-
Everton
- Model
- 31.0%
- Market, margin removed
- 45.3%
- Probability gap
- −14.3 pp
- Edge
- −36.5%
- Fair odds
- 3.23
- Market odds
- 2.05 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.39
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.6%
Outcomes with value
Hull City 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Hull City to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Hull City to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Everton at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Over 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Over 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Best opportunity
Hull City 2+ goals
Model 42.5% vs. bookmaker 27.7%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model disagrees with the market
The leading outcome: Hull City 2+ goals
What the model's reading is made of
- The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 5 matches. Everything behind this edge rests on that, which is too little to set out as a reason.
These are the parts of the model's own number, not an account of the bookmaker's. The fit reads two ratings a side, the competition's average home and away expected goals, the window it looks back over and how many matches it found in it — and nothing else is a reason this page can give.
What the model did not read
| Reading | Hull City | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Form — xG difference, the last 6 matches | -0.37 | -0.06 |
| Goals scored minus expected | +0.48 | -1.32 |
| Points won minus expected | +2.57 | +1.76 |
| npxG per shot | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Players the fantasy feed has flagged | 17 | 5 |
All of this is in the database and none of it entered the fit. A reading here may point the other way from every line above it — where it does, both are true, and only one of them is in the model.
Why the model leans Hull City
39% Hull City to win
- Attack
- 16th vs 13th
- Hull City attack v Everton defence
- Defence
- 9th vs 12th
- Hull City defence v Everton attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.37 vs -0.06
- xGD per match, last 5
- Projected goals
- 1.42 – 1.26
- Hull City v Everton
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 5 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Squad news
Hull City
17 listed-
Charlie Hughes 0% chance
Defender · Groin injury - Unknown return date
-
Enis Destan 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Konyaspor permanently
-
Jack Butland 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Arm injury - Unknown return date
-
Harvey Cartwright 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Grimsby Town on loan for the rest of the season
-
Cody Drameh 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Genoa permanently
-
Abu Kamara 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Portsmouth permanently
-
Darko Gyabi 0% chance
Midfielder · Thigh injury - Unknown return date
-
Ilyas Ansah 0% chance
Forward · Back injury - Unknown return date
-
Liam Millar 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Birmingham on loan for the rest of the season
-
David Akintola 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Omonoia FC permanently
-
Mason Burstow 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Sheffield Wednesday on loan for the rest of the season
-
Hidemasa Morita 0% chance
Midfielder · Calf injury - Expected back 11 Oct
-
Thimothée Lo-Tutala 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Colchester United on loan for the rest of the season
-
Matty Jacob 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Newport County on loan until January
-
Eliot Matazo 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Matt Targett 75% chance
Defender · Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Brooke Norton-Cuffy 75% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
Everton
5 listed-
Beto 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Fiorentina permanently
-
Adam Aznou 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Malaga on loan for the rest of the season
-
Christian Nørgaard 0% chance
Midfielder · Groin injury - Unknown return date
-
Nathan Patterson 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Torino permanently
-
Merlin Röhl 0% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Expected back 11 Oct
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Hull City | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.10 · 16th | (better) 1.46 · 12th |
| xGA / match | 1.48 · 10th | (better) 1.39 · 6th |
| xGD / match | -0.37 · 15th | (better) +0.08 · 10th |
| xPts / match | 1.09 · 16th | (better) 1.45 · 10th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.37 | (better) -0.06 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Hull City clean sheet
- 25%
- Hull City 2+ goals
- 43%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score: no
- 40%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.4%
- 2:1
- 10.2%
- 1:2
- 9.0%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
· 1 warning
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Hull City sample
- 5 matches
- Everton sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Hull City
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Everton
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Warnings
- Hull City has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.