Manchester City 2:1 Arsenal: xG & match report · Premier League

Sunday, 19/04/2026 at 17:30

Full time

Match report · Premier League

Manchester City Home 1.36 xG · 15 shots

Arsenal Away 1.62 xG · 9 shots

21 The result went against the chances

Goals

16' Rayan Cherki Manchester City · 0.10 xG chance 1–0
18' Kai Havertz Arsenal · 0.42 xG chance 1–1
65' Erling Haaland Manchester City · 0.23 xG chance 2–1

The shots behind it

Manchester City Arsenal

Shots: 15; 9
On target: 5; 3
Inside the box: 13; 8
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.19
Open play xG: 0.96; 1.46
Set-piece xG: 0.49; 0.22
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.44 for Manchester City and 1.70 for Arsenal.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

24 shots · 3.13 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Manchester City
Arsenal
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Manchester City

1.82 xG created 1.02 xGA

W 1.37 created, 1.42 conceded against Fulham
W 1.35 created, 0.58 conceded against Newcastle United
W 1.77 created, 1.47 conceded against Leeds United
D 2.02 created, 0.97 conceded against Nottingham Forest
D 2.12 created, 0.54 conceded against West Ham United
W 2.29 created, 1.14 conceded against Chelsea

Arsenal

1.71 xG created 0.86 xGA

D 1.86 created, 0.29 conceded against Wolverhampton
W 1.93 created, 0.76 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
W 1.13 created, 1.05 conceded against Chelsea
W 0.43 created, 0.80 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion
W 2.59 created, 1.05 conceded against Everton
L 2.32 created, 1.19 conceded against Bournemouth

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Manchester City: 0 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Arsenal 1:1 Manchester City 21/09/2025 xG 0.89 – 0.87

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.