Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 16:00
Full timeNottingham Forest 0:0 Tottenham Hotspur
Nottingham Forest were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Nottingham Forest's attack: 0.92 xG against 1.47 projected (−0.55).
The model against the result
- Nottingham Forest
- 43%
- Draw
- 31% What happened
- Tottenham Hotspur
- 26%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Nottingham Forest produced 0.55 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 12
- 12
- On target
- 2
- 0
- Inside the box
- 5
- 8
- xG per shot
- 0.06
- 0.13
- Open play xG
- 0.56
- 0.48
- Set-piece xG
- 0.12
- 1.11
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.65 for Nottingham Forest and 1.57 for Tottenham Hotspur.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
24 shots · 2.27 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Nottingham Forest
- Tottenham Hotspur
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.62 xG created 1.90 xGA
- W 2.05 created, 2.15 conceded against Chelsea
- D 1.10 created, 1.48 conceded against Newcastle United
- L 1.88 created, 4.57 conceded against Manchester United
- D 1.73 created, 0.95 conceded against Bournemouth
- L 0.66 created, 0.47 conceded against Leeds United
- D 2.30 created, 1.75 conceded against Liverpool
1.06 xG created 1.22 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged4 won2 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | +6.9% | Won |
| Nottingham Forest to win | 2.45 | +6.5% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.40 | +3.7% | Won |
| Tottenham Hotspur at most 1 goal | 1.50 | +3.4% | Won |
| Tottenham Hotspur not to score | 3.40 | +0.5% | Won |
| Nottingham Forest 2+ goals | 2.25 | +0.1% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | 43.5% | 38.5% | +4.9 pp | 2.30 |
| Draw | 30.5% | 27.8% | +2.8 pp | 3.28 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 26.0% | 33.7% | −7.7 pp | 3.84 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest to score | 79.6% | 75.0% | +4.6 pp | 1.26 |
| Nottingham Forest not to score | 20.4% | 25.0% | −4.6 pp | 4.91 |
| Tottenham Hotspur to score | 70.4% | 72.3% | −1.9 pp | 1.42 |
| Tottenham Hotspur not to score | 29.6% | 27.7% | +1.9 pp | 3.38 |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | 57.7% | +0.2 pp | 1.73 |
| Both teams not to score | 42.1% | 42.3% | −0.2 pp | 2.37 |
| Nottingham Forest 2+ goals | 44.5% | 41.1% | +3.4 pp | 2.25 |
| Nottingham Forest at most 1 goal | 55.5% | 58.9% | −3.4 pp | 1.80 |
| Tottenham Hotspur 2+ goals | 31.1% | 37.5% | −6.4 pp | 3.22 |
| Tottenham Hotspur at most 1 goal | 68.9% | 62.5% | +6.4 pp | 1.45 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.4% | 78.0% | −0.6 pp | 1.29 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22.6% | 22.0% | +0.6 pp | 4.42 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.1% | 54.9% | −5.8 pp | 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.9% | 45.1% | +5.8 pp | 1.96 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Nottingham Forest sample
- 20 matches
- Tottenham Hotspur sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 59 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.