Brighton & Hove Albion 3:4 Aston Villa: xG & match report · Premier League

Wednesday, 03/12/2025 at 20:30

Full time

Match report · Premier League

Brighton & Hove Albion Home 2.21 xG · 17 shots

Aston Villa Away 2.41 xG · 14 shots

34 The chances were evenly matched

Goals

9' Jan Paul van Hecke Brighton & Hove Albion · 0.64 xG chance 1–0
29' Pau Torres (o.g.) Brighton & Hove Albion · 0.10 xG chance 2–0
37' Ollie Watkins Aston Villa · 0.54 xG chance 2–1
45' Ollie Watkins Aston Villa · 0.34 xG chance 2–2
60' Amadou Onana Aston Villa · 0.16 xG chance 2–3
78' Donyell Malen Aston Villa · 0.36 xG chance 2–4
83' Jan Paul van Hecke Brighton & Hove Albion · 0.10 xG chance 3–4

The shots behind it

Brighton & Hove Albion Aston Villa

Shots: 17; 14
On target: 8; 10
Inside the box: 12; 12
xG per shot: 0.14; 0.18
Open play xG: 0.99; 1.36
Set-piece xG: 1.34; 1.15
Penalties: —; —

Brighton & Hove Albion's shots add up to 2.33 xG and Aston Villa's to 2.51; the published figures are 2.21 and 2.41.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

31 shots · 4.84 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Brighton & Hove Albion
Aston Villa
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Brighton & Hove Albion

1.45 xG created 1.13 xGA

W 0.91 created, 1.45 conceded against Newcastle United
L 1.12 created, 1.29 conceded against Manchester United
W 3.07 created, 0.50 conceded against Leeds United
D 0.39 created, 0.75 conceded against Crystal Palace
W 1.22 created, 1.91 conceded against Brentford
W 2.00 created, 0.89 conceded against Nottingham Forest

Aston Villa

0.96 xG created 1.17 xGA

W 0.32 created, 0.75 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
W 0.81 created, 1.18 conceded against Manchester City
L 0.41 created, 1.19 conceded against Liverpool
W 1.70 created, 1.61 conceded against Bournemouth
W 1.58 created, 1.79 conceded against Leeds United
W 0.94 created, 0.49 conceded against Wolverhampton

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.