Aston Villa 1:0 Manchester City: xG & match report · Premier League

Sunday, 26/10/2025 at 15:00

Full time

Match report · Premier League

Aston Villa Home 0.81 xG · 9 shots

Manchester City Away 1.18 xG · 18 shots

10 The result went against the chances

Goals

19' Matty Cash Aston Villa · 0.05 xG chance 1–0

The shots behind it

Aston Villa Manchester City

Shots: 9; 18
On target: 3; 4
Inside the box: 8; 14
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.07
Open play xG: 0.51; 0.80
Set-piece xG: 0.34; 0.38
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.82 for Aston Villa.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

27 shots · 2.03 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Aston Villa
Manchester City
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Aston Villa

0.84 xG created 1.31 xGA

L 1.14 created, 2.65 conceded against Crystal Palace
D 0.54 created, 2.08 conceded against Everton
D 0.78 created, 1.04 conceded against Sunderland
W 1.11 created, 0.92 conceded against Fulham
W 1.16 created, 0.40 conceded against Burnley
W 0.32 created, 0.75 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur

Manchester City

1.76 xG created 1.11 xGA

L 1.82 created, 2.30 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion
W 2.63 created, 1.52 conceded against Manchester United
D 0.87 created, 0.89 conceded against Arsenal
W 2.03 created, 0.41 conceded against Burnley
W 0.85 created, 0.70 conceded against Brentford
W 2.38 created, 0.81 conceded against Everton

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

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The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.