Manchester City 5:1 Burnley: xG & match report · Premier League

Saturday, 27/09/2025 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Premier League

Manchester City Home 2.03 xG · 23 shots

Burnley Away 0.41 xG · 9 shots

51 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

12' Maxime Estève (o.g.) Manchester City 1–0
38' Jaidon Anthony Burnley · 0.10 xG chance 1–1
61' Matheus Nunes Manchester City · 0.18 xG chance 2–1
65' Maxime Estève (o.g.) Manchester City 3–1
90' Erling Haaland Manchester City · 0.15 xG chance 4–1
90' Erling Haaland Manchester City · 0.44 xG chance 5–1

The shots behind it

Manchester City Burnley

Shots: 23; 9
On target: 10; 2
Inside the box: 13; 5
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.05
Open play xG: 1.61; 0.26
Set-piece xG: 0.43; 0.16
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.03 for Manchester City and 0.42 for Burnley.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

32 shots · 2.46 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Manchester City
Burnley
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Manchester City

1.87 xG created 1.28 xGA

W 2.47 created, 0.56 conceded against Wolverhampton
L 1.55 created, 1.11 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
L 1.82 created, 2.30 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion
W 2.63 created, 1.52 conceded against Manchester United
D 0.87 created, 0.89 conceded against Arsenal

Burnley

0.82 xG created 2.08 xGA

L 0.94 created, 2.32 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
W 1.00 created, 0.77 conceded against Sunderland
L 1.20 created, 3.54 conceded against Manchester United
L 0.13 created, 2.65 conceded against Liverpool
D 0.85 created, 1.10 conceded against Nottingham Forest

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.