Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Brighton & Hove Albion – Tottenham Hotspur
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Brighton & Hove Albion
- 53%
- Draw
- 27%
- Tottenham Hotspur
- 20%
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Draw | Tottenham Hotspur | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.90 | 3.71 | 4.88 |
- Total goals
- 2.93
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score
- 62%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Brighton & Hove Albion
53% Brighton & Hove Albion to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 8th
- Brighton & Hove Albion attack v Tottenham Hotspur defence
- Defence
- 12th vs 20th
- Brighton & Hove Albion defence v Tottenham Hotspur attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.33 vs -0.34
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.81 – 1.12
- Brighton & Hove Albion v Tottenham Hotspur
Squad news
Brighton & Hove Albion
15 listed-
Jack Hinshelwood 0% chance
Midfielder · Ankle injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Mats Wieffer 0% chance
Defender · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Harry Howell 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Leicester City on loan for the rest of the season
-
Femi Azeez 0% chance
Midfielder · Hamstring injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Yankuba Minteh 0% chance
Midfielder · Leg injury - Expected back 28 Nov
-
Stefanos Tzimas 0% chance
Forward · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Evan Ferguson 0% chance
Forward · Ankle injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Facundo Buonanotte 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Elche on loan for the rest of the season
-
Igor Julio 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Burnley permanently
-
Tom Watson 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Leicester City on loan for the rest of the season
-
Zadok Yohanna 0% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Amario Cozier-Duberry 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Middlesbrough on loan for the rest of the season
-
Mitoma Kaoru 0% chance
Midfielder · Hamstring injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Lewis Dunk 75% chance
Defender · Neck injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Pascal Struijk 75% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
Tottenham Hotspur
15 listed-
Dane Scarlett 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Leyton Orient permanently
-
Richarlison 0% chance
Forward · not included in squad.
-
Djed Spence 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Internazionale permanently
-
Souza 0% chance
Defender · Has joined FC Porto on loan for the rest of the season
-
Guglielmo Vicario 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Juventus on loan for the rest of the season
-
Cristian Romero 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Atletico Madrid permanently
-
Pape Matar Sarr 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Juventus on loan for the rest of the season
-
Mikey Moore 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined FC Köln on loan for the rest of the season
-
Mykhailo Mudryk 0% chance
Midfielder · Ankle injury - Unknown return date
-
Ashley Phillips 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Middlesbrough permanently
-
Xavi Simons 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Wilson Odobert 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Dejan Kulusevski 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Pedro Porro Sauceda 75% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Jan Paul van Hecke 75% chance
Defender · Foot injury - 75% chance of playing
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Brighton & Hove Albion | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.31 · 1st | 1.00 · 18th |
| xGA / match | 1.74 · 13th | (better) 1.56 · 11th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.57 · 4th | -0.56 · 16th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.62 · 6th | 1.17 · 13th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.33 | -0.34 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Brighton & Hove Albion clean sheet
- 30%
- Brighton & Hove Albion 2+ goals
- 56%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score: no
- 38%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.3%
- 2:1
- 11.5%
- 2:0
- 8.7%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Brighton & Hove Albion sample
- 20 matches
- Tottenham Hotspur sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Brighton & Hove Albion
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Tottenham Hotspur
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.